Lula ahead in polls for Brazil’s first-round vote; runoff likely

Supporters of Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, the Workers’ Party candidate for presidential re-election, attend a rally one day before the general election in Brasilia, Brazil, on October 3, 2026. | Photo Credit: Reuters A series of polls on Saturday (October 3, 2026) showed ‌Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula ​da Silva slightly ahead of ⁠Senator Flavio Bolsonaro before Sunday’s first-round vote, and a close race in a ‌likely runoff between the leftist incumbent and his right-wing challenger.If ‌no candidate wins more ‌than ⁠50% of valid votes — ⁠which exclude blank and null ballots — on Sunday (October 4, 2026), the two frontrunners advance to a second-round ​runoff on October ‌25.CNT/MDA pollFirst round (valid votes): Lula 47.8%, Bolsonaro 42.1%, Augusto Cury 3.6%, Ronaldo Caiado 3.4%, Renan ‌Santos 1.7%, Romeu Zema 0.9%Runoff: ​Lula 47.3%, Bolsonaro 43.1%.MDA surveyed 2,007 people from ⁠September 30 to October 2; margin of error of 2.2% points.DatafolhaFirst round (valid votes): Lula 45%, Bolsonaro 42%, Caiado 4%, Santos 3%, Cury 3%, Zema 1%.Runoff: Lula 47%, Bolsonaro 46%.Datafolha surveyed 4,006 people from October ‌2-3; margin of error 2% points.Quaest pollFirst round (valid votes): Lula 46%, Bolsonaro 45%, Cury 3%, ⁠Santos 3%, Caiado 3%.Runoff: Bolsonaro ⁠44%, Lula 42%.Quaest surveyed 3,702 people from October ‌2-3; margin of error 2% points. Published - October 04, 2026 06:42 am IST