Low turnout and voter apathy pose threat to SA’s democracy, warn analysts

One analysts suggested the introduction of party thresholds for councils, with another saying coalitions could subvert the will of the people. The prospect of coalition governments taking control of many hung municipalities after the local government elections raises questions about whether post-election political negotiations truly reflect the wishes of South Africans. Political analysts warned low-voter turnout, growing political apathy and the fragmentation of the political landscape pose serious challenges to SA’s democracy, with millions of eligible voters staying away from the polls. Political analyst Goodenough Mashego said low voter participation reflected growing frustration among the electorate, many of whom have lost faith in political parties and no longer believe voting would better their lives. He said some voters had withdrawn from the electoral process because they could not identify a political alternative they trusted. Political parties, he added, had become associated with the corruption and governance failures that had frustrated the electorate, leaving some believing that staying away from the polls was their only option. The participation of about 14.9 million voters out of 29 million registered, against an estimated 38 million eligible voters, highlighted the scale of the challenge facing South Africa’s democracy. This means that 52% of adults able to vote are deciding the future of the other 48% for the next five years. Mashego raised concerns about inadequate voter education, saying low participation could not be attributed to frustration alone. “Millions of eligible voters staying away from the polls could undermine the legitimacy and representativeness of elected governments. “When just over half of eligible voters turn out to determine the country’s leadership, it has serious implications for the legitimacy of that government,” he said. “People may not feel represented because they did not vote for the government, even though choosing not to vote was their decision.” Minority vote? Political analyst André Duvenhage said although voter turnout in local government elections was traditionally lower than in provincial and national elections, the latest participation figures appeared to be slightly higher than in previous elections. “If we compare this voter turnout with previous elections, we will find it is slightly higher than normal,” he said. “Although we are talking about 15 million out of 30 million registered voters, the turnout is still higher than in the past.” But Duvenhage said the gap between registered voters and the estimated 37 million to 39 million eligible voters remained concerning. “You can argue 15 million people are effectively speaking on behalf of between 37 million and 39 million eligible voters. “This is extremely problematic because it reflects the level of interest in politics,” said Duvenhage. “It could be many people do not want to associate themselves with politics because of high levels of political apathy. In some cases, political illiteracy may also be responsible.” Coalition politics was likely to become the order of the day in metros across the country, forcing parties to negotiate deals to secure governing majorities. “I do not think the current coalition system undermines the will of the majority of voters,” said Duvenhage. “The majority of voters have supported different political parties and we need to recognise and accept that reality.” Time for electoral system change? Despite defending the proportional representation system, Duvenhage said political fragmentation was making it increasingly difficult to establish stable governments capable of delivering services. “What we are witnessing is a deeply divided South African society,” said Duvenhage. “Fragmentation of the political process is reflected in the electoral system. The challenge is bringing this fragmentation together in a way that provides political stability and good governance.” Duvenhage called for changes to the electoral system and coalition legislation, saying South Africa should consider introducing an electoral threshold of between 1% and 2% to limit the number of smaller parties entering legislatures and councils. “Our coalition legislation is not up to date. We need serious adjustments to the regulations governing coalition governments, and should consider reforms to the electoral system.” Duvenhage also called for formal coalition agreements, longer negotiation periods and measures to limit opportunities for motions of no confidence, saying these changes could help improve political stability. Another political analyst, Sandile Swana, said coalition negotiations after elections could undermine the democratic choices made by voters. He said voter participation had remained stagnant at 2016 levels despite population growth, raising serious questions about the legitimacy and representativeness of elected governments. The number of people participating in elections had failed to grow in line with the population, meaning outcomes increasingly reflected the will of those who turned out to vote rather than the broader electorate. “This means an election cannot necessarily produce a representative result. “Those who are diligent about voting can elect a government and claim to represent the majority, while, in reality, they may represent only a minority of the population,” said Swana.