Look at how this Kalshi market is moving for tomorrow’s Alabama vs. Florida State game

Alabama quarterback Austin Mack (10) runs the ball against East Carolina during the second half of an NCAA college football game Saturday, Sept. 5, 2026, in Tuscaloosa, Ala. (AP Photo/Vasha Hunt)AP Photo/Vasha HuntFlorida State shocked Alabama in Tallahassee last year and had an extra week to prepare for the Crimson Tide ahead of their date in Tuscaloosa this weekend. Despite that, the Seminoles are a heavy underdog on Kalshi. Alabama has a 90% probability of winning on Saturday and improving to 3-0.The moneyline market has moved drastically toward Alabama over the past 10 days. Here’s a glimpse at the trend at Kalshi, one of the best prediction markets.Florida State vs. Alabama market on KalshiWhen viewing the college football prediction markets on Kalshi, this game was considered a coin flip as recently as Labor Day, when Alabama had a 50.7% chance of winning at 7 a.m. ET.The Crimson Tide’s winning probability and share prices have exploded since FSU’s 27-24 loss to Southern Methodist on Sept. 7.Alabama is 2-0 with two convincing wins, including a road conference victory against Kentucky on Saturday. Alabama’s average margin of victory is 33 points. The Crimson Tide are a -20.5 favorite. On Kalshi, they have a 48% probability of covering the point spread.The Crimson Tide also get the Seminoles during a time of turmoil, with coach Mike Norvell squarely on the hot seat. Norvell may need to beat Alabama again to win back faith in a program that is 6-18 against FBS opposition and 2-17 against Power 4 opponents since 2024.Why Florida State can winProbability: 10% ($0.10 per share) at KalshiThe Noles will need to conjure the magic from Week 1 last year. Former QB Thomas Castellanos transferred to Texas Tech, and Ashton Daniels now leads the FSU offense. But despite all the negative words written about the Noles, they put up a fight against the No. 15-ranked Mustangs, who were picked second in the preseason ACC poll. Norvell can’t exactly hang his hat on moral victories, especially with an offense ranking 93rd in FBS. Last year, however, the Seminoles dominated the Crimson Tide at the line of scrimmage and could again. Florida State averages 208 rushing yards per game, ranking 39th among 138 teams.Of course, Alabama may have a say in that. It has allowed 65 rushing yards through two games. If FSU can run the ball, take an early lead and play from ahead, it can win.Why Alabama can winProbability: 90% ($0.91 per share) at KalshiThere are many ways Alabama can win, but the best is to bury FSU from the start. The Crimson Tide were lackadaisical in the first half at Kentucky and went into the locker room trailing 17-13 before roaring back for 32 unanswered points. You can bet Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer has been harping on a fast start all week, especially since they scored on their first offensive possession against FSU last year but only scored 10 points on their subsequent nine drives. Alabama also will need to protect the ball, since it has an even turnover margin despite its two dominant wins. How Kalshi works for college footballYou can bid on shares at a more lucrative price, but transactions won’t go through until another user is willing to buy or sell. All Kalshi trades are peer-to-peer.Contracts cost $0.01 to $0.99, and all winning shares pay out $1. Losing shares pay $0. Transactions are available until the market settles. That invites trading while the FSU-Alabama game is played. That means share prices could swing drastically. As a federally regulated financial institution, Kalshi invites trading as a user would with stocks. That’s how users can buy and sell shares before outcomes settle to grow their account funds.You can also use the site like you would a sportsbook. In doing so, you’d get $1 per share purchased on each winning outcome.All new users who sign up with the Kalshi promo code AL25 receive a $25 bonus after trading $25.All users who keep at least $250 in their Kalshi accounts will get 3.25% APY. That means your Kalshi account will effectively double as a high-interest savings account, empowering users to both play predictions and grow their money organically.Note: Event contract trading involves the risk of substantial loss and is not suitable for all investors. 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