Living the climate change, missing the science: Kashmir's reality check

Extreme weather is now common across Kashmir. Experts call for mainstreaming climate risk into development planning and building resilienceThe popular tourist destination of Pahalgam in Kashmir witnessed flash floods on September 1 as a cloudburst sent muddy waters surging through streets and hotel fronts. It was the second such incident in the area this season. An earlier one had damaged a bridge.Not just Pahalgam but across Kashmir, extreme weather events have become increasingly common—massive hailstorms, cloudbursts, flash floods, intense summer heat and erratic or scant rainfall. Although the region has long endured unpredictable weather, this spring and early summer were unusually turbulent, with more than 100 hailstorms reported till June.Residents sense that something is amiss with Kashmir’s climate. Many interpret these events as divine punishment for societal moral decline. Only a smaller section of informed citizens attribute the changes to global warming and the particular sensitivity of the Kashmir Himalayas—a mountain region, like Nepal, that is highly climate-vulnerable.EXPERIENTIAL AWARENESS The recent devastating flash floods in Nepal and Tibet, caused by a glacial lake outburst, have heightened fears that similar disasters could strike Kashmir unless corrective measures are taken. A recent survey conducted by the Islamic University of Science and Technology (IUST) among around 800 people across Kashmir found that people clearly experience the effects of a changing climate but fail to grasp how these changes are interconnected.“The study indicated a high level of experiential awareness of climate change, with people clearly perceiving shifts in temperature, snowfall and rainfall patterns,” said Prof. Shakeel Ahmad Romshoo, vice-chancellor of IUST and a distinguished earth scientist and glaciologist, in a conversation with INDIA TODAY.Particularly strong perceptions include uneven rainfall (95 per cent of respondents), changing snowfall timing (92 per cent), declining snowfall (89 per cent), rising summer temperatures (87 per cent), shorter winters (86 per cent) and hotter summers (82 per cent). Perceptions of extreme hazards are less uniform, although substantial numbers recognise the growing threat of climate-related disasters.“Overall, the study suggests an important distinction: people may have limited formal understanding of climate-change science, yet they are strongly aware of its manifestations through changes in their local weather and environment,” Prof. Romshoo said when asked about the urgent need to improve climate literacy in Jammu and Kashmir following the Nepal floods.The IUST findings align with other research, including the Yale Program on Climate Change Communication, showing that climate perceptions in India are frequently rooted in lived experience of shifting temperatures, rainfall and extreme events. The Yale study had more than half the respondents saying they knew little or nothing about climate change even though many reported experiencing extreme weather.“Recent Himalayan disasters (Nepal) remind us that awareness can save lives; climate literacy must, therefore, be treated as an essential component of disaster-risk reduction, not merely environmental education,” emphasised Prof. Romshoo.FARMS BEAR THE BRUNTProf. Farooq Ahmad Lone, who heads the Division of Environmental Sciences at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST), Kashmir, said that in a region already feeling the effects of climate change, the impacts are especially pronounced on agriculture and horticulture.“J&K is highly sensitive to climate variability, with visible changes in snowfall and rainfall patterns, extreme temperatures, water availability and extreme weather events like hailstorms and cloudbursts. Agriculture and horticulture are particularly affected through altered heat and water stress, dry spells, floods and shifts in pest and disease dynamics,” Prof. Lone explained.Post-harvest losses have risen sharply whenever the Jammu-Srinagar National Highway is closed by landslides, disrupting the transport of perishable produce. Prolonged delays cause spoilage, quality deterioration, reduced market value and significant financial losses for farmers and traders—problems directly or indirectly linked to climate change.Beyond agriculture and horticulture, Prof. Lone identified depleting water resources (driven by reduced snowfall and shrinking glaciers), changing temperature regimes, hydropower generation, frequent landslides, extreme weather events, pollution of water bodies, wetland degradation and habitat loss as key areas requiring focused attention for climate resilience.KASHMIR DIFFERENT FROM NEPALThe geography and geology of Kashmir differ markedly from Nepal’s narrow valleys. Dr Khursheed Ahmad Parray, assistant professor of geology at the Government Degree College, Sopore, argues that glacial lake outburst floods are unlikely to produce the same catastrophic effects in the wider Kashmir Valley.“First and foremost, we need to understand the geology, geography, geomorphology and climate patterns of our region, which is part of the western Himalayas. Glacial lake outburst floods have only marginal implications in the Valley because we do not have the extensive glacial systems found in Nepal, which lies closer to major glacial lines and is characterised by narrow valleys,” Dr Parray told INDIA TODAY.Glacial lake outburst floods pose greater risk in confined valleys. One such area is the Aru Valley above Pahalgam, where future rock and debris slumps could create glacial barrier lakes. The Ladakh region, Dr Parray said, is also prone to glacial lake outburst floods. Kashmir sits amidst major geological lineaments and fault systems in the Himalayas, including the Main Boundary Thrust (Pir Panjal Thrust), the Main Central Thrust and the Zanskar Thrust.Dr Parray also highlighted the work of US seismologist Dr Roger Bilham, whose research has warned of a significant strain accumulating from the ongoing collision of the Indian and Eurasian plates, making the region highly vulnerable to a mega earthquake in the future. Reflecting on various modern probabilistic seismic hazard assessments, including that of Dr Bilham’s, the Bureau of Indian Standards has changed its design code for the region and reclassified all of Jammu and Kashmir as Seismic Zone V—the highest risk category.A recent GPS and geomorphological study by scientists from the Department of Earth Sciences, University of Kashmir, revealed active vertical crustal movements: average land uplift in the southern and southeastern parts of the Valley (including Tral and Kulgam) and subsidence along the northern and northwestern edges (Uri and Bandipora). The findings point to an active normal fault running northeast-southwest across the Valley, transverse to the major thrust faults.“Apart from climate change, landslides and flooding, our concern is also specifically associated with disasters linked to earthquakes,” Dr Parray said.CLIMATE AWARENESS AND RESILIENCEWhile the Nepal disaster has shown that natural hazards cannot always be prevented, experts agree that awareness, modern early-warning systems and scientific farming practices can substantially reduce damage and strengthen resilience.“The first requirement is to translate climate change into information that people can understand and act upon. Climate and disaster-risk education should extend from schools and universities to communities through panchayats, local institutions, civil society and the media, using local languages and locally relevant examples,” Prof. Romshoo suggested. He emphasised that climate risk be mainstreamed into development planning, with infrastructure designed for future extremes, because awareness alone is insufficient.Prof. Lone recommended integrating climate literacy into school curricula from the primary level, supported by community outreach, local-language communication and climate information services for farmers. Resilience, he said, requires early-warning systems, climate-smart agriculture, water conservation, wastewater utilisation, ecosystem restoration and climate-resilient infrastructure, including solar-based energy systems.In view of the depleting water resources, Dr Parray advocated the construction of check dams at higher and middle altitudes across Kashmir and other regions of Jammu and Kashmir to prevent quick run-offs and to conserve rainwater and avert future shortages. He also called for updated hazard maps and strict construction guidelines reflecting seismic sensitivity.In the wake of the Nepal tragedy, all three experts urged the Jammu and Kashmir government to commission a time-bound, multidisciplinary hazard and climate-risk assessment to map high-risk areas and critical infrastructure. “As climate change impacts combine with unplanned development, floodplain encroachment and slope disturbance to amplify disasters, we must shift from post-disaster response to pre-disaster climate-risk management—identify risks early, strengthen early warning and build resilience before disasters occur,” Prof. Romshoo said.Prof. Lone added: “The study should combine climate projections, hazard mapping, remote sensing and field observations and provide location-specific, actionable measures to prevent future disasters.”“Disasters can’t be stopped,” argued Dr Parray. “But better preparedness can minimise their impact and help save life and property.”Subscribe to India Today Magazine- EndsPublished By: Shyam BalasubramanianPublished On: Sep 10, 2026 19:54 IST