Live: Reserve Bank tipped to hike interest rates to 18-year high

The Reserve Bank's interest rate setting board is today widely expected to lift the cash rate to an 18-year high of 4.85 per cent.It follows senior central bank officials warning inflation was still too high, which fuelled the expectations of a fifth hike this year.Follow the day's financial news and insights from our specialist business reporters on our live blog.Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.Tue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:21amTue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:21amMarket snapshotASX 200 futures: +0.9%Australian dollar: -0.4% 69.99 US centsWall Street (Friday): S&P 500 -0.1%, Dow +0.7%, Nasdaq -0.5%Europe (Friday): Dax +0.6%, FTSE +0.3%, Eurostoxx600 +0.4%Spot gold: +1.5% to $US3,955/ounceOil: Brent futures -8.1% to $US104.34/barrelBitcoin: -0.9% $US77,042Prices current at around 7:15am AEDT.Live updates on the major ASX indices:Tue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:56amTue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:56amThanks for your comments on today's RBA meetingThe RBA is destroying people's lives. They target the mortgage sector only , forcing mortgagee sales and wanting more people unemployed . How is that good for the economy? Whilst big business have record profit. The RBA is a one trick pony that is destroying house ownership. I have NO trust in this elitist board . - JohnI will personally benefit from the rate rise, we have a lot of money in savings from selling our house and returning to Australia and when we buy a house here we won't need a mortgage. So I should be happy, but I'm not. This can't be the best way to push back against inflation, its is too damaging to too many peoples confidence and opportunities for the future. We could all afford to absorb a temporary hike in GST which would hike prices and push down spending - the increased GST would be discounted from the inflation data to avoid it's component as being seen as inflationary.- MattWe're already getting a lot of varied thoughts about today's interest rates decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia.And remember, if you're feeling worried about your finances, there are free services like the National Debt Helpline.Tue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:50amTue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:50amUnemployment rate to push over 5 per centCBA's analysts have also reiterated some gloomier forecasts for Australia's economy in their morning note today.It comes ahead of a widely tipped rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia to tackle rising inflation.Assuming the RBA hikes today, it would be the fifth hike this year and the highest cash rate target in 18 years at 4.85%. A 125bp tightening is material in an economy with high household debt. Our Australian economics team now expect economic growth to fall to 1.0%/yr by mid‑2027, compared to our previous forecast of 1.8%/yr. The unemployment rate is now forecast to increase to 5.1% compared to our previous peak of 4.8%.Tue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:35amTue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:35amCBA predicts a 'sell the fact' with AUDThe local currency dropped a touch below US 70 cents overnight, ahead of today's rates decision by the Reserve Bank of Australia at 2:30pm AEDT.Commonwealth Bank's economists have just put out their morning note about currencies and what the AUD could do.A 25bp hike is widely expected by Australian economists and market participants, including ourselves. With a 25bp hike around 80% priced, the upside to AUD/USD is limited in our view. The post‑meeting statement or the press conference would have to be very hawkish to push AUD/USD through resistance at 0.7076 (76.4% fibbo) in our view. By contrast, we would not be surprised to see a ‘buy the rumour, sell the fact’ reaction where AUD/USD falls after the hike because the hike has been well telegraphed by RBA officials.Tue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:27amTue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:27amOil prices dive more than 7 per centThere's been a big move in oil markets overnight, reportedly on comments by US President Donald Trump and on talks between Iranian and Qatari officials.Brent crude futures settled $US8.66, or 7.63%, lower to $US104.77 a barrel. US West Texas Intermediate crude was down $US7.66, or 7.36%, at $US96.46.Brent had ended October at its highest level in six months on concerns that the Middle East conflict could escalate again after Tuesday's US midterm elections.Yet Mr Trump on Monday said that Iran wanted to make a deal to end the war and that such an agreement "could happen." On Monday evening, Qatari mediators travelled to Tehran for talks with Iran's Foreign Minister on a potential US-Iran deal.While these signs of progress pushed oil prices lower, one analyst, Pavel Molchanov, told Reuters that scepticism is warranted after many "false dawns” in recent months.Reporting with Reuters.Tue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:06amTue 3 Nov 2026 at 7:06amThe rates decision that stops the nationGood morning, Emilia here to start off our live business and economics blog on what's expected to be a big day of news.The Reserve Bank of Australia's monetary policy board will deliver its interest rate decision at 2:30pm AEDT.Expectations are for the cash rate to be raised for a fifth time this year, taking it to 4.85%. That would be its highest setting in 18 years.Just half an hour later, jockeys on horses will leap out of the gates for the 166th Melbourne Cup at 3pm AEDT.Half an hour after that, RBA governor Michele Bullock will front the media about the rates decision at 3:30pm AEDT.As always, we appreciate your comments. How are you feeling about today's rates decision?