Live: ASX to follow Wall Street lower, oil prices higher after Houthis threaten Saudi blockade

The Australian share market is likely to fall in morning trade, following a negative session on Wall Street ahead of earnings reports from Alphabet, Tesla and Intel later this week.Oil prices remain near a one-month high as hopes of the US and Iran returning to negotiations were offset by Yemen's Houthis threats to impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia.See how the trading day unfolds on our blog.Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.Tue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:02amTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:02amMarket snapshotASX futures: -0.4% to 8,716 pointsASX 200 (Monday close): -0.1% at 8,791 pointsAustralian dollar: +0.2% at 69.96 US centsWall Street: Dow Jones (-0.6%), S&P 500 (-0.2%), Nasdaq Composite (-0.1%)Europe: FTSE (-0.7%), Stoxx 600 (-0.3%)Spot gold: -0.2% to $US4,008/ounceOil (Brent futures): +1% to $US88.97/barrelOil (WTI futures): +0.7% to $US83.06/barrelIron ore: -0.4% at $US98.60/tonneBitcoin: +1.3% to $US65,334Prices current at around 7:30am AESTTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:55amTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:55amLatest escalation means US-Iran conflict likely to last at least another two months: CBAThe Commonwealth Bank's senior geo-economics analyst Madison Cartwright believes the breakdown of the ceasefire means that the US-Iran war has at least a further two months to run."Our base case (55%) is that the war will continue at the current intensity for at least the next 2 months," he writes."We assign a low probability (15%) to a diplomatic solution in the near term, with greater risk (30%) of escalation."The "current intensity" includes a renewed almost total closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, and now also includes a threat to close the Bab el-Mandeb Strait to Saudi shipping (more on that in another post).Shipping volumes through the Middle East are way down on pre-war levels (CBA)"The Iranian economy will suffer more than the US. However, Iran can withstand more suffering," Cartwright argues."We expect that eventually the US will be compelled to offer concessions to end the war. Iran is seeking a deal that solidifies its position as a regional great power, which will require an end of its economic and diplomatic isolation."He says the US has backed itself into a corner with the relative failure of its joint strategic bombing campaign with Israel at the outset of the war."Iran's ability to respond to US escalation means that there is no military solution for the US. Iran has been reiterating the risks of escalation by making explicit threats to regional energy infrastructure. These threats are credible, and in ourview, this is understood by the US, which will deter against significant escalation," Cartwright warns."With no military solution the US is trapped. A new deal with Iran will likely be on worse terms for the US than the last MoU."The latest increase in hostilities has already seen Brent crude prices climb from recent lows of around $US72 a barrel at the start of this month to around $US89 a barrel overnight.Refined fuels have seen even bigger price jumps, as explained by my colleague Ian Verrender in an excellent piece over the weekend (see below).Key commodity prices since the Iran war began (CBA)But, if Madison Cartwright is right, we can probably expect to see further increases in oil and fuel prices as stockpiles continue to be depleted and shortages start becoming apparent.Tue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:43amTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:43amParamount ordered to pause Warner Bros acquisitionParamount Skydance must pause its $US110 billion ($157b) acquisition of Warner Bros Discovery through August 3, a US federal judge has ruled, after a California-led coalition of states argued the merger would irreparably harm competition.It was an early win to the group of states including New York, Colorado and Massachusetts, with the judge saying they had made a "strong showing" that the deal would unlawfully decrease competition.Warner Bros Discovery shares closed 3.8% lower on Wall Street."Today's decision is an important victory for all those who would be hurt by this merger, and I look forward to continuing to fight this case," said New York Attorney General Letitia James.The judge will hold a hearing on August 3 on whether the deal should be delayed throughout the course of the lawsuit, which could take months to reach a final ruling."We are confident the evidence will demonstrate that the State AGs' antitrust arguments are without merit as their alleged markets and claims of anticompetitive effects are without any basis in modern market realities," a Paramount spokesperson said.The lawsuit, filed in Oakland federal court, threatens to derail Paramount CEO David Ellison's bid to transform his company into a major rival of Netflix and Disney.A prolonged pause of the deal could hit Paramount financially (Reuters: Mario Anzuoni)California and 11 states sued on July 13, arguing the deal would create a media behemoth with the power to raise prices in film and television.US District Judge Araceli Martínez-Olguín agreed with the states that letting the deal close would likely lead to changes that are hard to undo if the merger is ultimately found to be illegal, such as job cuts and sharing of sensitive information.The judge said the deal looks likely to violate antitrust law if it gives the combined company 27% of the market for distribution of widely-released films as the states have alleged.A final determination would come after both sides present evidence at trial.Paramount Skydance's argument that companies like Amazon and Apple have entered the film market recently was not enough to show the merger is lawful, the judge said.With fewer distributors, studios could find it easier to pressure theater owners for a greater share of ticket revenue, the states have alleged.A prolonged interruption could hurt Paramount Skydance financially.For each calendar day the merger is delayed past September 30, Ellison would be on the hook to pay Warner Bros. shareholders a 25-US-cent-per-share "ticking fee," or about $US7 million a day, according to the merger agreement.ReutersTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:31amTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:31amTrump administration imposes new 50% tariffs on some Canadian productsAnother day, another tariff announcement.The United States is imposing a tariff of 50% on a wide range of Canadian products in response to what it calls Canada's "discriminatory treatment" of American cars, alcohol, and dairy.Here's what Reuters is reporting about this flare-up in trade tensions:The products covered by the tariffs range from wine to hockey sticks to cement, according to a White House fact sheet.The new tariffs would also apply to a variety of other items including dairy products, swimming pools, furniture, fishing rods, seeds, clothing and wigs."While the Administration continues to secure fair and reciprocal trade deals with our trading partners, Canada, unlike other partners and allies, continues to retaliate against the United States for its efforts to rebalance trade and protect US industry in national-security sensitive sectors," US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer said in a statement.The announcement comes just days after Donald Trump blamed Canada for wildfire smoke spreading across the United States and threatened to add the "incalculable cost" of dealing with the pollution to existing tariffs on Canadian goods.The tariffs announced on Monday (local time) take effect on August 19 and apply regardless of whether goods qualify under the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement.The White House cited Canada's "protectionist" dairy system as well as tariffs and quotas on cars imported to Canada from the US but not from other countries as among the reasons for the tariffs.It also cited the fact that most Canadian provinces have halted the sale of US alcohol, which they did in response to previous US tariffs.The White House said Canadian imports of U.S. motor vehicles dropped by 22% and imports of U.S. alcoholic beverages declined by 81% over the past year.Tue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:20amTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:20amWhy ASIC is bracing for the risk of another global credit crunchPrivate credit lending outside the banks is a growing industry with high interest rates, and potentially even high risks.The corporate regulator ASIC has sounded the alarm after the collapse of US auto lender Tricolor Holdings and UK mortgage lender Market Financial Solutions.And shares of US-listed Blue Owl have plummeted 36% this year as investors fret about the lender's exposure to ailing software companies impacted by the AI boom.In Australia, there's currently $250 billion worth of private credit loans.Most lending is in property, and the regulator is warning a housing crash could spark a private credit financial shock.ASIC Commissioner Simone Constant says private credit is at a size and at a breadth that hasn't been seen before, and hasn't been tested in a downturn, "so there would be bumps" if there were to be a private credit collapse.For more, here's the story by David Taylor:Tue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:09amTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:09amPrepare for stock market pain as China throws a spanner into AI boomOver the weekend, a Chinese start-up called Moonshot, from out of nowhere, released an AI model that rivals and, on some measures, even outperforms the flagship versions from Anthropic and OpenAI.Its new Kimi K3 model, developed at a fraction of the cost, has the potential to spark a price war for AI services that could jeopardise the huge expense racked up by the US tech giants in their race for domination.And this time next week, Moonshot will release an even bigger model of its new AI platform.Anthropic and OpenAI, which have been neck and neck in the race for AI domination, were already facing significant challenges in their ambitions to list on the stock exchange.That will now be far more difficult.Moonshot's new model reportedly costs around 40 per cent less than the two big US rivals. It too is looking to list but on the other side of the Pacific, in Hong Kong.For more, here's the latest analysis from the ABC's chief business correspondent Ian Verrender:Tue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:02amTue 21 Jul 2026 at 8:02amASX to follow Wall Street lower as ongoing Middle East tensions boost oil pricesGood morning, and welcome to the ABC's finance blog! I'll be guiding you through the latest market action for the next few hours.It looks like the local share market will start its day modestly lower. ASX futures, which are a rough indicator of how the market may open, have risen by about 0.4%.The Australian dollar has risen slightly to 69.96 US cents.Houthi threat keeping oil prices highOn oil markets, Brent crude futures settled 0.9% higher at $US88.88 per barrel.Mediators have passed Iran a proposal to de-escalate the war with the US that would offer a 10-day ceasefire to find ways to revive an interim deal reached last month. That's according to Reuters, quoting an unnamed senior Iranian official.While traders are hoping there will be renewed US-Iran negotiations at some stage, there has been a new complication which could drive oil prices even higher.Yemen's Iran-aligned Houthis said they were imposing a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, opening a new front in the US-Israeli war on Iran and widening the threat to global energy supplies and trade beyond the Gulf.US markets continue to fallThe Middle East tensions also weighed on Wall Street's three major indexes, which finished trading lower this morning.The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite fell less than the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones as the chip sector recovered some of the prior week's losses.The Dow fell 0.6% to 51,839 points, the S&P 500 lost 0.2% to 7,443 points and the Nasdaq slipped by less than 0.1% to 25,508 points.Investors are also awaiting the release of profit results from America's tech giants later this week — and expectations are incredibly high.Google's parent company, Alphabet, Tesla and Intel are some of the companies that will be reporting their June-quarter results in the next few days.Anyway, please grab a coffee, tea or whatever you normally have in the morning, and I'll have more updates for you shortly!- with reporting by Reuters