Live: ASX set to edge up despite $US500b Alphabet share slump overnight

The Australian share market is likely to rise modestly on opening this morning, with ASX 200 futures up 15 points overnight.Tech giant Google and its owner, Alphabet, lost more than half a trillion US dollars amid worries AI would subsume its advertising business, the largest one-day fall in the company's history.See how the trading day unfolds on our blog.Disclaimer: this blog is not intended as investment advice.Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:11amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:11amMarket SnapshotASX 200: 8,891 pointsAustralian dollar: FLAT at 70.33 US centsDow Jones: -0.25% to 52,342 pointsS&P 500: -0.304% to 7,720 pointsNasdaq: -1.375% to 26,184 pointsFTSE: +0.26% to 10,722 pointsSpot gold: -1.15% to $US4,020/ounceBrent crude: +0.16% to $US115.5/barrelIron ore: flat at $US90.75/tonneBitcoin: +0.23% to $US79,023Prices current around 8:10am AEDT.Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 9:03amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 9:03amEconomist tips three RBA rate hikes in 'worst case scenario'Former NAB chief economist Alan Oster worries it may take three more RBA interest rate hikes to calm inflation.But that scenario, he says, would also produce a recession.Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:55amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:55amAmazon hit in after-hours trade after disappointing resultsThe tech pain looks set to bleed into tomorrow's US session, after a negative initial reception to Amazon's third quarter results.The company reported earnings per share of $US1.89, which missed typical analyst forecasts of $US1.97, despite strong performance in its Amazon Web Services cloud computing business.Its capital expenditure of $US77.3 billion massively exceeded analyst expectations of $US58.67 billion, leading to negative trailing free cash flow of $US42.4 billion over the past year.The company's shares were down around 6% in after-hours trade according to Bloomberg.Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:40amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:40amWhat's happening with oil prices?Westpac economist Ryan Wells said oil prices remained elevated overnight amid ongoing geopolitical uncertaintyBrent Crude rose 0.6 per cent to US$116/bbl as reports that US President Donald Trump was being briefed on military options for Iran renewed concerns over a potential escalation.Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:35amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:35amLocal equities to 'sidestep' Wall St tech sell-offMoo Moo's chief market strategist Tapas Strickland said he's expecting a "much more subdued open" than what is indicated by ASX 200 futures, is likely this morning.This is given sharp falls in post-market trade by Amazon (-6%) and Intel (-20%).Overnight, the US technology sector sold off sharply with the Nasdaq Composite down 1.4% and S&P 500 falling 0.3%.Major commodities also fell in sympathy – copper down 1.1% and gold dipping 0.4% – which will weigh on Australian miners."Wall Street turned decidedly sour as investors penalised tech heavyweights for aggressive spending and elusive pay-offs," he said.He said even Microsoft dipped despite delivering 19% revenue growth, "burdened by plans" to issue US$25 billion in debt to fund infrastructure."When valuations are stretched, markets demand cash-flow proof over long-dated promises."Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:33amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:33amECB joins the October interest rate hold clubWe've had a flurry of central bank meetings this week, with the Bank of Canada lifting its benchmark rate for the first time in three years to 2.5%, while the Reserve Bank of New Zealand surprised markets by staying on hold at 2.75% and the US Fed surprised no-one by doing the same to keep rates at 3.75-4%.Last night it was the turn of the European Central Bank, which stuck with the on-hold club."The ECB kept its policy rates unchanged at its October meeting and reiterated a data-dependent, meeting-by-meeting approach to setting policy," writes ANZ's G3 economist Brian Martin."We continue to think that the ECB will raise the deposit facility rate 25bp [basis points] to 2.75% at its next meeting in December."The dovish signal in the post-meeting statement that tighter financial conditions, owing to the rise in government bond yields, will weigh on growth and inflation, was offset by President Lagarde retaining a hawkish bias and noting that the Governing Council had considered a rate hike at this meeting. Market expectations for further hikes were ultimately little changed on the day."Lagarde announced she will depart the ECB in February. Pablo Hernandez de Cos and Klaas Knot are the frontrunners to replace her."Next cab off the rank is the Bank of Japan later today, with markets pricing just a 2% chance it will hike today, but an 80% chance it will raise rates in December.Of course, the Reserve Bank of Australia meets next Monday and Tuesday, with markets this morning pricing around a 90% chance of a rate hike being announced at 2:30pm AEDT on November 3.I had a great chat with Carrington yesterday about the various central bank decisions to that point, of which the most interesting was the RBNZ's hold against 95% market expectations it would raise rates.Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:18amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:18amInvestors becoming more discerning about how AI growth is funded, warns analystThere's an interesting dichotomy between Google parent company Alphabet's third quarter results and their disastrous reception — a 12.6%, roughly $US500 billion share value wipe-out — and rival Microsoft.Microsoft's share price barely moved overnight, off just 0.2% to $US530.14.Betashares investment strategist Hugh Lam said the divergence reflects concern that Alphabet's free cash flow remained negative for a second consecutive quarter, while Microsoft is still able to fund its AI expansion while retaining positive free cash flow."The market is moving from indiscriminately rewarding AI spending to scrutinising how it is financed," he writes."The sell-off came despite clear green shoots at Alphabet. Google Cloud revenue rose 103% year-on-year to $30.7 billion, and the division's operating margin expanded to 36.2% from 23.7% a year earlier. Usage is growing too, with the Gemini app reaching one billion users."The key question is whether Alphabet's 2027 capex, which management expects to increase significantly, converts into Cloud revenue fast enough to bring free cash flow back into positive territory."Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:09amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:09amAlphabet sheds half a trillion US dollars in worst fall on record as AI cracks widenInvestors appear to be becoming increasingly nervous about the artificial intelligence rollout, particularly following Alphabet results that disappointed the market.Investors were spooked by the Google parent company's increased cash burn as its investment in AI exceeded its current ability to generate profits.The company's Google Services unit missed quarterly revenue expectations by just over $US2 billion, generating $US96.3 billion, as growth in search revenue slowed.Reuters reports that Alphabet's negative free cash flow of $US9.1 billion shocked analysts, who had generally expected it to come close to breaking even.Alphabet told investors it plans to further increase its investment spending from this year's forecasts of around $US200 billion.That saw its shares record their worst fall since listing, plunging 12.6% to $US283.82, wiping close to $US500 billion off its market valuation in one day.That was enough to drive the Nasdaq down 1.4%, compared to modest 0.3% falls for the S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial Average.Fri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:05amFri 30 Oct 2026 at 8:05amGood morning Hello all.We're off to a sleepy start on this morning's blog. Did someone sleep in?I wish!But never fear all your finance news is coming your way.