Listen: Will Armenia be the next EU candidate?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network. EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms. Find the full transcript below: Armenia could soon take another step towards closer ties with the European Union. Prime minister Nikol Pashinyan said on Monday (24 August) that his country could soon submit its official application to join the EU. Why does Armenia want to move closer to Europe now? And what could this mean for its relations with Russia? Armenia is a small country in the Caucasus, located between Georgia, Azerbaijan, Iran and Turkey. Since gaining independence after the collapse of the Soviet Union, the country has maintained close ties with Russia. It is notably a member of the Collective Security Treaty Organization, a military alliance, similar to Nato, but which is dominated by Moscow. So, to this day, the ties between Armenia and Russia remain significant. A large Armenian diaspora lives in Russia, which is home to roughly as many Armenians as Armenia itself. Moscow also still has a military base in the country, and Armenia’s economy remains heavily dependent on Russia. And yet, Yerevan is moving further and further away from Moscow, and closer to Brussels. Last year, the Armenian parliament gave the green light to a potential application to join the EU. And this seems to have broad support among the population, where pro-European sentiment is relatively strong. So, what caused this change of direction? One factor is the war in Nagorno-Karabakh. Many Armenians accused Russia of failing to provide enough support in their conflict with Azerbaijan. And then, of course, there was Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. For Yerevan, this is a clear sign of how aggressive Russia can become. Armenia is therefore now looking to diversify its alliances and move closer to Europe. So, what should we expect in the coming months? Well, submitting an application does not mean becoming a member of the European Union. Armenia first has to officially submit its application. That is the step the prime minister has announced he wants to take. The EU’s 27 member states would then have to decide whether or not to grant Armenia candidate status. If that status is confirmed, Yerevan plans to put the question to its population in a referendum. Only if the result is positive could the lengthy accession process begin. And, as we know, that process can take years. Beyond the many practical benefits of joining the EU, membership would also strengthen Armenia’s position in the region. But this rapprochement also comes with risks. Moscow has already taken economic measures against Yerevan and could use Armenia’s dependence on Russian energy as a means of pressure. Armenia is therefore facing a major strategic choice: continue moving closer to Europe, at the risk of further damaging its relations with Russia.