Listen: Why can’t Europe offer Ukraine an alternative to Starlink?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network. EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms. Find the full transcript below: Ukraine’s war effort depends heavily on two American tools: Starlink and Starshield. Both belong to Elon Musk’s SpaceX, and both can be switched off. Europe says it wants to reduce that dependence. Is it possible, and why is Europe so far behind? Starlink is SpaceX’s satellite internet service. It’s sold to the general public, to companies and to armies. It relies on a constellation of around 10,000 satellites in low orbit, which makes it possible to get a connection almost anywhere on Earth. Starshield is the version designed for governments and militaries. It uses the same technology, but with dedicated satellites and dedicated encryption. In other words, it’s more secure. The problem is that its use completely depends on the goodwill of Elon Musk. But also on the US government. Starshield is a government system, and it’s Washington that actually makes it available to Ukraine. This has already led to some awkward situations. A few weeks ago, Ukraine noticed that the speed of its drones had been throttled overnight. The explanation was clear: it was an American move. The issue has since been resolved, but it illustrates a real unease. So how did Ukraine end up in this position? At the start of the war, the country’s cable-based internet infrastructure was damaged. On the battlefield, the army now uses SpaceX terminals to receive internet signal, because they’re small and very practical. And that is exactly what Europeans don’t offer. Most European satellites are in high orbit. They cover very large areas, but they have two drawbacks in wartime. Because they are further away, the delay in transmission is longer. Second, the equipment needed to receive the signal is much bulkier, so it is not suited to the front line. Elon Musk made a very strategic choice: putting tens of thousands of satellites in low orbit. It’s much cheaper, and much easier to operate. Now could Europeans compete on this market? The closest European equivalent, on a smaller scale, is the OneWeb constellation, run by the French company Eutelsat. Eutelsat was originally a European intergovernmental organisation. But it was dismantled and its activity has been taken over by a company. The French state is still its largest shareholder, with around a third of the shares. The United Kingdom and an Indian group also hold stakes. Through OneWeb, Eutelsat has around 680 satellites, in both low and high orbit. The company says it could replace Starlink in the medium term, meaning sometime in the 2030s. It plans to reinforce its fleet with several hundred new satellites. But most of them will actually replace older ones. So it’s not a big increase, compared with Starlink. There is also another project designed to secure European connections. It’s called IRIS². This one is a European project, carried out by several companies, including Eutelsat. The EU is its main customer. Unlike OneWeb, it’s not a commercial venture. But both share the same goal: reducing dependence on Starlink. The ambition is a constellation of at least 348 satellites by 2030, with deployment starting in 2029. So again, fewer than a thousand. That’s still far from Starlink. But here, it’s worth saying that satellites in low orbit are much cheaper to put in place, which also explains the sheer volume SpaceX has been able to launch in recent years. With far fewer satellites, but in higher orbit, Europeans can also cover the whole planet. It’s just that the system isn’t as flexible. Finally, is money part of the explanation? Yes, of course. The United States spends around six times more on its space programmes, civil and military, than Europeans do. There’s also another factor that helps SpaceX deploy thousands of satellites at low cost: it has its own launcher, the Falcon 9. Eutelsat, on the other hand, has to buy launches from third parties. So it’s much more expensive, and it doesn’t control the pace at which it can put satellites into orbit. Before wrapping up, a quick word about China, another big actor. It’s quite new in the space industry, and it’s not really spending huge amounts of money for the moment. But it’s worth keeping an eye on Beijing on this front too.