Listen: What’s at stake for Europe in the US midterms?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network. EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms. Find the full transcript below: Americans are voting today in the midterm elections. All 435 seats in the House of Representatives are up for grabs, along with a third of the Senate. According to the polls, the Republicans are expected to lose seats. What would a Democratic win actually change for Europeans? First, a quick word on what to expect tonight. Polls suggest a win for the Democrats camp, especially in the House of Representatives. It is actually common for the president’s party to lose ground at the midterms. And Donald Trump’s approval ratings have been falling steadily. So, if the Democrats do win, what could they do? Quite a lot, on paper at least. Congress holds significant powers. The House can, for instance, launch impeachment proceedings against the president. But removing him from office would require a two-thirds majority in the Senate, which is very hard to reach. The Democrats have said they would open investigations into the administration, including on corruption. They want to keep financial support for Ukraine in place, and to end the war in Iran. They also want to roll back many of the tariffs imposed by Donald Trump. These are all issues of great importance for Europe. But could the Democrats really undo them? For several of these issues, a simple majority is enough to pass a law. So on that front, they could take a stand. But there is a catch: the president has a veto. And to override this veto, Congress needs a two-thirds majority in both chambers. In the House, that means around 290 seats. And even in the most optimistic polls, the Democrats don’t get there. Those polls currently point to a tight race for the Senate, and a more comfortable Democratic win in the House. Of course, these are estimates to be taken with a pinch of salt. The BBC reminded us yesterday that polls in the United States regularly get it wrong, although they do so less often for midterms. In any case, a two-thirds majority looks like an unlikely scenario. Still, this doesn’t mean nothing will change. The Democrats would still have some levers if they do win. They could, for example, block bills by simply refusing to vote for them. And they could hold up the budget, and with it, the funding of the war effort. In the case of the tariffs, the Supreme Court ruled earlier this year that Donald Trump had overstepped his powers since Congress had not approved the tariffs. This is already a difficulty, even if, for now, the government is playing with the legal basis of the tariffs. So, to sum up: the Democrats wouldn’t be able to overturn Donald Trump’s policies altogether, but they could make his life a lot harder.