Listen: Is the EU well on track to reach defence readiness by 2030?

Production: By Europod, in co-production with Sphera Network. EUobserver is proud to have an editorial partnership with Europod to co-publish the podcast series “Briefed” hosted by Léa Marchal. The podcast is available on all major platforms. Find the full transcript below: Europeans have set ambitious goals for the defence capabilities that they want to achieve in the next few years. They have increased their defence spending by 79 percent. Will that be enough? We’ve talked about it recently on Briefed: Europeans are not entirely sure about the likelihood of a potential Russian attack in the near future. In any case, they know they need to prepare for the worst. That’s why the European Commission proposed a plan called ReArm Europe, whose objective is to mobilise up to €800bn for European defence. To achieve this, the commission has given member states some fiscal flexibility, and has also proposed to use its borrowing capacity, aiming at borrowing up to €150bn that member states could use. So this adds to the countries’ own plans to rearm themselves. It is estimated that, on average, they increased their defence spending by 79 percent between 2020 and 2025. These are huge amounts of money already. But will this be enough? Not sure. The European Court of Auditors, which monitors EU actions, has just published a report on defence readiness, and it highlights the many challenges that remain. Auditors point to a lack of coordination between the different sources of funding, which results in fragmented investments in defence. Important industrial bottlenecks have also been identified. They are largely due to many different factors, starting with the wars in Ukraine and in the Middle East. But they are also largely due to dependencies on foreign countries like the US. In 2023, 78 percent of defence acquisitions by EU member states were sourced from outside the EU, with the biggest share coming from the US. In the past few years, for example, Germany has continued to invest in the US-made Patriot system for its air and missile defence, while a European alternative was available: the Franco-Italian SAMP/T. In that light, the European Court of Auditors recommends going ahead with the principle of European preference. This means that as much defence spending as possible should be spent on EU-made equipment. This should not come at the expense of effectiveness and speed, of course. Attention also needs to be paid to the skills necessary to both develop and use modern equipment. This is an area where the EU is increasingly struggling. But what about the budget itself? Auditors admit that, even though efforts have been made to allocate more funding, it may still not be adequate to address the priorities. In that sense, more budget is always welcome. But it is important, according to the Court of Auditors, that any money be spent in a very smart way. And they are actually presenting this as a major challenge. They warn that additional funding could be counterproductive if it is not translated into concrete operational capabilities. Last but not least, increasing budget allocations in the capitals should be done in a fiscally sustainable way. Many member states already face excessive deficit procedures, they are required to reduce their spending to meet EU fiscal rules. That means one thing: there is little room of manoeuvre on the budget side. It is now up to the EU and its member states to implement these recommendations or come up with new ideas. If they don’t, Europe’s defence faces the risk of remaining unachieved and fully dependent on the US.