Lions vs. Patriots matches up this year's two most aggressive head coaches on fourth downs

Published November 12, 2026 11:58 AM When the Lions meet the Patriots in Munich on Sunday, the fans in Germany are likely to see both teams go for it on fourth down.That’s because Lions head coach Dan Campbell has long been the league’s most aggressive coach on fourth downs, and this year, Patriots coach Mike Vrabel is No. 2.Coaches’ fourth down decisions are tracked for the Aggressiveness Index at FTN Fantasy, looking at how often coaches go for it compared to other coaches in the same situation. By that measurement, Campbell is first with a score of 1.45 (meaning he goes for it 45 percent more than an average NFL coach) and Vrabel is second with a score of 1.22.The Aggressiveness Index is a more detailed way of tracking a coach’s fourth-down decision making than simply looking at the number of times a team has gone for it on fourth down. Some teams go for it often on fourth down not because the coach is aggressive, but because they happen to face a lot of fourth-and-shorts while trailing late in the fourth quarter. That’s not a particularly aggressive time to go for it.What gives Campbell such a high score on the Aggressiveness Index is decisions like going for it on fourth down at his own 24-yard line with the score tied late in the fourth quarter against the Packers. That’s the kind of call that Campbell makes and other coaches don’t, which is why his Aggressiveness Index is so much higher than any other coach’s. Campbell is at or near the top of the Aggressiveness Index every year. Last year he was second only to Mike Kafka, who was very aggressive on fourth downs during his seven-game stint as the Giants’ interim head coach. Perhaps unsurprisingly, after Kafka was not retained by the Giants, Campbell hired him to be the Lions’ passing game coordinator.Vrabel has not been as aggressive as Campbell on fourth downs, but he has been more aggressive than the average NFL coach, both during his time with the Patriots and before that as head coach of the Titans. Both Vrabel and Campbell are former players with reputations for a blend of old-school toughness and a new-school understanding of the strategic advantages of aggressive fourth-down decision making. It’s a winning combination.