Libya-Turkey maritime deal stokes tensions in eastern Mediterranean

The ratification of a maritime agreement between Libya and Turkey is stoking tensions across the eastern Mediterranean. Athens has condemned the deal as illegal, amid wider regional concern over Turkey’s growing influence. On Thursday, Greek Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis criticised the deal, which Libya’s eastern-based parliament ratified on 20 October, calling it “blatantly illegal, null and void”. The agreement sets out an exclusive economic zone (EEZ) between Libya and Turkey that encompasses the Greek island of Crete. Libya’s internationally recognised government in Tripoli signed the agreement in 2019, but the rival administration in eastern Libya had refused to ratify it until October. “I don’t think it’s possible to overestimate its political and symbolic importance. The whole world knows that Turkey has been pursuing this parliamentary ratification,” said Libya expert Jalel Harchaoui of the Royal United Services Institute for Defence and Security Studies, a London-based think tank. “People thought that eastern Libya was a reliable friend of the enemies of Turkey, and that the process was going to drag on for several years,” he added. According to Harchaoui, the ratification is a bold step in Ankara’s broader strategy to assert its influence across the region, known as the Blue Homeland doctrine. Turkey courts Libya's rival factions in bid to further Mediterranean ambitions “We should never forget that the exclusive economic zone is a corollary of the Blue Homeland doctrine,” he said. “And the Blue Homeland doctrine is really about nationalism, commitment to projecting Turkish influence across all of Africa, across the sea.” Divided country Libya has been divided since Muammar Gaddafi was toppled in a Nato-backed uprising in 2011. The Government of National Unity rules the west from Tripoli, while the Government of National Stability holds sway in the east from Benghazi. Ankara has long backed the Tripoli-based government, but it has recently set out to win over the Benghazi administration, hoping to bridge Libya’s deep divide. Benghazi’s approval of the maritime deal is seen as a direct result of these diplomatic efforts. “It’s one of the most critical diplomatic achievements recently in the Mediterranean,” said Elem Eyrice Tepeciklioglu, professor of African studies at the Social Sciences University of Ankara. “This agreement is also a reflection of Turkey’s efforts to engage with both parts of the country.” Tepeciklioglu expects the EEZ to bring economic rewards. “The region covered by the deal has significant energy resources. So it’s important for energy exploration as well,” she said. Regional resistance Ankara now faces strong opposition in the region. Greece, Cyprus and Egypt have all condemned the agreement, arguing that it encroaches on their territorial waters, while the European Union and the United States have also voiced concerns. With vast energy reserves believed to lie beneath the disputed waters, Federico Donelli, professor of international relations at the University of Trieste in Italy, warns that tensions could rise. Turkey and Egypt turn page on decade of friction with show of friendship “The more immediate risk is an increase in diplomatic tension and especially competing activities in disputed maritime areas,” he said. “So exploration licences, seismic surveys, naval deployment and even some naval drills could be used to reinforce competing claims, and the possibility of incidents could increase.” Donelli suggests that Italy, which has close ties to both Turkey and Libya, could play a key role in easing tensions with its fellow EU members Greece and Cyprus. Meanwhile, Ankara is reaching out to Cairo and has invited Egypt to join the maritime pact. Libya expert Aya Burweila of the Athens-based Center for Hellenic and Mediterranean Studies says the ratification caught Greece off guard. “For Athens, symbolically, it’s a huge blow. I don’t think they expected it,” she said. “If you see the map, you know, it basically cuts across Crete’s maritime waters.” Despite Greece’s tough rhetoric, Burweila believes diplomacy can prevail. “It’s [the agreement] more symbolic than anything else, because I don’t see how it can be enforced,” she said. “So I think this is an opening for negotiations with Egypt and Greece and other countries. And I think these talks are already happening between Libya and Egypt.” France hosts global push to promote stability in Libya, keep elections on track Israeli concern The agreement also risks inflaming tensions between Israel and Turkey, which have already been sharpened by Ankara’s support for Hamas and the war in Gaza. Israel is increasingly worried about Turkey’s regional ambitions. In September, Israeli Navy commander Vice Admiral Eyal Harel warned of Turkey’s growing assertiveness in the Eastern Mediterranean. Harchaoui believes Israel’s concerns are likely to grow. “Turkey was able to pull off an extraordinary win. If you look at just the area of influence, it has almost won eastern Libya. Turkey is going to just sell more weapons; it’s going to build more airstrips, so it’s literally expanding… So they [Israel] have to decide: are they going to remain in the rhetorical space or do something about it?”