Leaked Russian Blueprint Counts 1,000 Weapons to Freeze Ukraine

An alleged Russian document calculates that three Kinzhal missiles could be used against each combined heat and power plant and 20 attack drones against each single boiler facility as part of a wider campaign to deprive Ukrainian cities of electricity, heating and water. The Ukrainian investigative project Schemes, run by RFE/RL, said on Thursday, Oct. 8, that it obtained a copy of the document from sources in Ukraine’s Defense Forces.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. The file outlines approximately 60 critical targets and calculates that Russia would need roughly 1,000 weapons to disable them: up to 770 drones and drone-missiles, 170 guided aerial bombs and 75 Kinzhal and Iskander-M ballistic missiles. The document does not constitute a confirmed order for attacks. Experts consulted by Schemes described it as an analytical estimate that could be used to justify weapons production and establish how many munitions would be required for a future operation. Russia calculates weapons for each target The document is titled “Analytical Brief: Analysis of Ukraine’s Energy Generation and Utilities” and is dated August 2026. Its authors are not identified, its metadata has been altered and some pages are missing. It also does not specify which Russian officials received the presentation before Ukrainian intelligence allegedly intercepted it. Schemes said the file relies partly on publicly available information from OpenStreetMap, Worldometers and the websites of Ukrenergo, Ukrhydroenergo, Kyivteploenergo, the Energy Ministry and DTEK. Other assessments are attributed only to unnamed Russian military experts or a “working group.” Other Topics of Interest Poland Ends Russian Drone Probe After Failing to Identify Perpetrator Prosecutors cleared the military’s response but left key details classified. The document names four priority sectors: electricity generation and distribution, water supplies, sewage systems and heating. Its list of 60 targets includes hydroelectric and thermal power plants, combined heat and power facilities, electricity substations, cross-border interconnectors, boiler houses, water-treatment facilities and pumping stations. According to the calculations: Equipment connecting each of Ukraine’s three operating nuclear power plants to the grid would require two Iskander missiles to disable. Each major hydroelectric power plant could require up to 25 Molniya, Geran or Dan-T/Banderol drones, or three Kinzhal missiles. Each combined heat and power facility could require 25 drones or three Kinzhals. The document also considers approximately 25 FAB-500 guided bombs and five Iskander-M missiles for each facility. A substation or electricity interconnector could require 15 drones or three Kinzhals. A boiler house could require 20 Geran or Dan-T/Banderol weapons. The authors acknowledge that boiler houses are close to residential areas and state that using other weapons against them could cause civilian casualties. Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa are principal targets The document identifies Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa as the main target cities. It also lists Dnipro, Zaporizhzhia, Mykolaiv, Kherson, Poltava, Chernihiv, Kryvyi Rih, Cherkasy, Kropyvnytskyi, Lviv, Vinnytsia and Ivano-Frankivsk as priorities. Kyiv’s energy system receives particular attention. Although the capital has an extensive network, the authors identify five substations forming part of the “Kyiv ring” as potential weak points. According to the calculation, disabling 12 key substations serving Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa could halt as much as 90 percent of their electricity supply. The document estimates that this would require 40-50 Molniya drones and 130-140 Geran-4 or Dan-T/Banderol weapons. The same material was previously examined by The New York Times, which reported that Moscow’s apparent objective was to cause a humanitarian emergency by cutting large cities off from electricity, heating and water. The proposed campaign reportedly begins with attacks on interconnectors through which Ukraine imports electricity from Europe, followed by attacks against 10 major hydroelectric plants and equipment connecting the South Ukraine, Rivne and Khmelnytskyi nuclear power plants to the national grid. Not a final attack order Energy Research Center Director Oleksandr Kharchenko cautioned that the document should not be interpreted as a direct combat order. “This is not a combat directive,” he told Schemes, describing it as a presentation intended to demonstrate the concept to senior Russian officials. A Ukrainian defense-industry representative who had seen the material before being contacted by journalists offered a similar assessment. The source said the calculations could support requests for manufacturers to produce certain quantities of weapons. An actual operational plan would be a separate document specifying how weapons would be distributed and when attacks would take place, the source said. Schemes could not independently establish who prepared the file. The defense-industry representative assessed that it probably originated in the Russian Defense Ministry or one of its subordinate bodies. Ukraine’s military intelligence, Foreign Intelligence Service and Security Service had not formally authenticated the document by the time the investigation was published. “Cold terrorist calculation” Energy Minister Denys Shmyhal presented Russia’s alleged preparations to European partners during a G7+ energy meeting in Paris on Sept. 17. Shmyhal described the material as a “cold terrorist calculation,” saying it contained tables specifying the weapons considered necessary to destroy individual facilities. Since the full-scale invasion began, Ukrainian prosecutors have opened investigations into 3,374 Russian attacks affecting 1,177 energy facilities, according to figures provided to Schemes. At least three facilities attacked during Russia’s large-scale barrage on Sept. 30 – two combined heat and power plants in Kyiv and a thermal power plant in the Kyiv region – also appeared in the document. On Oct. 7, Russia launched 70 missiles and dozens of attack drones across Ukraine, hitting energy infrastructure and residential buildings. The nationwide death toll later rose to at least 32, including five children. Kyiv Post is Ukraine’s first and oldest English news organization, reporting since 1995. Its international reach – 90% of readers are outside of Ukraine – make it truly Ukraine’s global voice.