Latvia’s Pro-Ukraine Landslide Hides a Weakness Putin Could Exploit

Latvia has just held what its own public broadcaster called “a bit of an embarrassing” election. This bashfulness from Latvia’s National Public Service Broadcaster, LSM, was because only 51.8% of eligible voters turned out, the lowest result since Latvia’s first parliamentary election in the modern era in 1993. Yet those who did turn out handed Prime Minister Andris Kulbergs and his United List 35.3% of the vote and 42 of the 100 seats in the Saeima, Latvia’s parliament – the strongest result achieved by a single political force since Latvia regained independence. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. Latvia has emerged from the election with an unusually strong government and an unusually disengaged electorate. For most European democracies, that would primarily be a political problem. For Latvia, it is also a security problem. Latvia is a NATO frontline state of just 1.8 million people, bordering both Russia and Belarus. Its grand strategy can be reduced to one overriding objective: make Latvia impossible to isolate. Internationalize survival Latvia cannot deter Russia through mass. It has to do it through connections. That means embedding NATO troops on Latvian soil, keeping the United States and Canada strategically invested in the Baltic region, and integrating more closely with Poland and the Nordic states. It means spending close to 5% of GDP on defense, building fortifications along the eastern frontier, investing in drones and air defense, and reducing Russian economic and informational leverage. Other Topics of Interest Putin Rejects Peace Talks in Trump Call, Vows to Press War Kremlin aide Ushakov said Putin rebuffed talks and vowed to fight on after Trump called with birthday greetings and diesel deals. Above all, it means supporting Ukraine. For Riga, Ukraine is both an ally and a forward school of national defense. The Ukrainian battlefield provides lessons in drones, electronic warfare, air defense and Russian tactics that Latvia hopes never to have to learn for itself. Kulbergs has received a powerful mandate to continue this Atlanticist course. A likely coalition with the National Alliance and New Unity would control 59 seats. Support for Ukraine and NATO remains firmly anchored at the center of the Latvian government. But Latvia’s defense strategy also depends on something NATO cannot provide: a cohesive and politically engaged society. Barely half Latvia’s electorate voted, raising uncomfortable questions for a national defence strategy built partly around participation and social cohesion. (Photo: PAP/Abaca) The internal front line Latvia follows an all-of-society approach to defense. Its National Security Concept is explicit that “the existence of the State of Latvia depends on a responsible attitude of all inhabitants of Latvia towards the State and its security.” It links national resilience to the readiness of society as a whole, while defining internal security as resting on a “cohesive civil society” whose citizens participate actively and are prepared to contribute to the defense of the state in a crisis. Defense Minister Raivis Melnis put it clearly just over a week before the election: “The real first thing is resilience, which is people and country resilience.” Then almost half of Latvia’s electorate stayed at home. Low turnout does not mean half the country would refuse to defend Latvia. But it does expose weakness in some of the social foundations on which Latvia itself says national resilience depends. President Edgars Rinkēvičs has already drawn attention to the danger. “Disappointment and indifference are dangerous to the democratic foundations and future of our country,” he said after the result. Participation was particularly weak in parts of Latgale, Latvia’s easternmost and most heavily Russian-speaking region. Turnout in Daugavpils, where Russian is dominant in everyday life, was just 46.55%. This takes us to the most sensitive part of Latvia’s security dilemma. Russian-speaking does not mean pro-Russian Almost a quarter of Latvia’s population is ethnically Russian, while Russian is spoken at home by a much larger share. That demographic legacy of the Soviet period has long made Latvia different from Lithuania and has placed questions of language, history and identity close to the center of national politics. Since Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, the temptation has been to view this population primarily through the lens of security. The evidence is considerably more complicated. Former Latvian integration minister Nils Muižnieks said: “I do not think that we can talk about a fifth column in Latvia.” Research among Russian-speaking Latvians also suggests that straightforward support for Moscow is a minority position. One major study found 55% supporting neither Russia nor Ukraine. Researcher Mārtiņš Kaprāns argues that this “neutrality cannot be reduced to apathy or ignorance.” Latvia’s parliament has emerged with a stronger governing majority, but record-low turnout raises questions about political engagement beyond its walls. (Photo by Jaap Arriens/NurPhoto via Getty Images) The bigger problem appears to be alienation. Parts of Latvia’s Russian-speaking population have become detached from the country’s mainstream political and media environment. Some distrust Riga. Some dislike policies reducing the public role of the Russian language. Some have become politically homeless following the collapse of Harmony, the party that once dominated Russian-speaking politics. This election suggests that the two responses to that alienation are abstention and protest voting. Latvia First and Sovereign Power/Young Latvians, both considerably softer towards Moscow than the governing parties, will together control 32 seats. That does not turn their voters into Kremlin loyalists. But from the perspective of national resilience, alienation is important. The next stage of Latvian security Russia does not need Latvia’s Russian speakers to become a fifth column. A population that distrusts state institutions, withdraws from politics or feels that the Latvian state belongs to somebody else already creates a seam Moscow can exploit. Latvia therefore faces a difficult balancing act. It has good reason to restrict Russian influence, dismantle the remnants of Soviet political power and protect Latvian as the language of the state. At the same time, successful resilience ultimately requires Russian-speaking citizens to feel that they have ownership of that state too. Latvia has spent years hardening its borders, strengthening its military and embedding itself so deeply inside NATO that Moscow could never confront it alone. Kulbergs’s landslide gives him an unusually strong mandate to continue that work. The embarrassing part of this election is the reminder that Latvia’s next line of defense has to be built from citizens who believe strongly enough in the Latvian state to participate in it. TVP World TVP World is Poland's first English-language channel where you can find our guest interviews, world news from the Polish perspective and the latest news from the CEE region.