Latest On Randy Arozarena’s Market

Randy Arozarena is one of the top bats available in a weak free agent hitting market. The incumbent Mariners issued a qualifying offer but are expected to move on, content to receive the compensatory pick after the first round when he inevitably signs for at least $50MM with another club. The Seattle Times has reported that the Cuban-born Arozarena may prefer to move back to the East Coast, where he spent four and a half seasons in Tampa Bay before the 2024 deadline trade to Seattle. The Phillies have reportedly shown some interest as they scour the top of the outfield market. At the same time, Philadelphia president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski expressed some trepidation about adding another big contract to one of the older rosters in the league. Arozarena is entering his age-32 season and will cost a signing club draft compensation once he officially declines the QO. Philadelphia, as luxury tax payors, would be subject to the highest penalties: their second- and fifth-highest picks in 2027, plus $1MM from their international amateur bonus pool. Arozarena’s camp at the Boras Corporation has also apparently opened the winter with a lofty asking price. Ryan Divish and Adam Jude of The Seattle Times report that they’ve been seeking something in the six-year, $150MM+ range. That’s an ambitious goal, particularly on length. Freddie Freeman and DJ LeMahieu are the only free agents within the past decade to command six years starting at age 32 or older. LeMahieu’s contract was artificially stretched to reduce the average annual value for luxury tax purposes. Freeman is a future Hall of Famer who was a year removed from winning NL MVP when he signed with the Dodgers for $162MM. Of course, it’s standard practice for players and agents to start high in an attempt to anchor negotiations. Most outside observers project Arozarena for three or four years. MLBTR predicted a four-year, $100MM contract in ranking him the #5 player in this year’s class. Philadelphia is the only team that has been directly tied to Arozarena to this point. Seiya Suzuki is a similar player and has been linked to Seattle, Philadelphia, Toronto, Boston and San Diego. Aside from the Mariners, it’d make sense if there were a decent amount of overlap in their respective markets. Peter Abraham of The Boston Globe reported this evening that the Red Sox again have left fielder Jarren Duran available on the trade market, which could clear the path for a run at Suzuki or Arozarena. Toronto got very little out of left field this year. Speculatively, the Orioles could also be a potential landing spot after trading Taylor Ward at the deadline. Arozarena is coming off a .281/.381/.484 showing with 26 home runs. He’s gone 20-20 in each of the last six seasons, the only player to do so, and didn’t show any signs of offensive decline despite moving to Seattle’s T-Mobile Park. Arozarena destroyed left-handed pitching this year (.306/.386/.565 with 11 homers in 197 plate appearances), a plus in a market starved for right-handed bats. He also led all qualified hitters with a .933 OPS on the road, compared to a .788 mark in Seattle. There shouldn’t be much doubt about Arozarena’s offensive ability. The concerns are primarily his age and already middling defensive grades in left field. He’s a below-average runner at this stage of his career and might need to move to designated hitter at the back end of a long-term deal. View Comments (3)