Labour take five-point poll lead over Reform in new ‘Burnham bounce’

Labour is reaping the benefits of ousting Sir Keir Starmer as leader as fresh polling shows further evidence of an “Andy Burnham bounce”, with the party now five points clear of Reform UK. In a poll conducted by BMG Research exclusively for The i Paper, Labour has overtaken Nigel Farage’s party. The survey found that 28 per cent of respondents said they would vote for Burnham’s party, compared with 23 per cent who backed Reform. The Conservatives are in third, according to the polling, with 20 per cent, followed by the Liberal Democrats and the Green Party, which are both on 10 per cent. Shorts If repeated at a general election, the results would make Labour comfortably the biggest party but still just shy of an overall majority and well short of the landslide they secured in 2024. It marks the third poll this week to show Labour ahead of the right-wing party, providing solid evidence of a “Burnham bounce”, according to experts. It is the first time in 16 months that any party other than Reform has led a BMG poll. Rob Struthers, research director at BMG, said the latest figures mean “we can begin to be confident that the Burnham bounce is real”. According to the results, both Reform and the Greens have seen a fall in support from voters. Reform is down four points and Zack Polanski’s Greens are down three percentage points, in a sign of the difficulties the two parties have faced in recent weeks. Struthers said Burnham was winning back voters from parties to Labour’s left, including the Greens, while Reform is being “squeezed on both sides” from the Tories and likely Restore Britain. “We’re increasingly seeing the Tories hold on to more of their 2024 vote under Badenoch with fewer switching to Reform. More Reform voters are saying they’d go to another party, indicative of the impact of Restore Britain,” he said. The polling is likely to further fuel speculation as to whether Burnham will call an early election, as he seeks to capitalise on his early popularity with the public. However, the new Prime Minister earlier this week ruled out such a prospect, insisting he did not think “the public want it”, and was instead focused on “getting the country back where it should be, getting it working”. His remarks chime with the poll, which showed that support for an early election has now softened with 40 per cent believing Burnham should go to the ballot box, down from 49 per cent last month. The figures come off the back of a steady drum beat of popular cost of living policy announcements by the former Greater Manchester mayor in his first week in No 10, followed by a series of more substantive pledges on social care and devolution. Struthers said the research showed that so far, the “public like what they see” when it comes to Burnham, having promised a cut to electricity bills, a £2 cap on bus fares and a reduction in business rates for pubs and restaurants within days of becoming PM. “Burnham’s flurry of announcements have clearly struck a chord,” he said. “A signal of intent, with policies like the VAT cut on electricity and capping bus fares proving very popular. Couple this with a more natural, authentic personal appeal, and Labour suddenly find themselves out in front.” But the pollster cautioned that there was still a long way to go for Burnham to secure sustained backing from the electorate. “It’s early days, and he wouldn’t be the first Prime Minister to inherit the job from a predecessor of the same party, enjoy a honeymoon, then run into electoral realities. Gordon Brown and Theresa May are evidence of that. But there’s no denying the strong start.” And in a further boost to Burnham since he inherited the reins from Sir Keir Starmer, the polling shows voters are now more upbeat about the future following his arrival into No 10, with 33 per cent saying they are more optimistic compared with 17 per cent saying they are less optimistic. Earlier this week, polling by More in Common showed Labour had a four point lead over Reform, with 28 per cent saying they would vote for Burnham’s party and 24 per cent saying Reform. This was followed a day later by a second survey from Survation, which had Labour with a two point gap ahead of Reform, while YouGov and Deltapoll each had Labour and Reform neck and neck.