Kingmaker in waiting? Opportunity's Qiulae Wong makes her mark in debate

Analysis - Winston Peters has spent three decades perfecting the art of being kingmaker. But last night, there were signs of a changing of the guard - with Opportunity's Qiulae Wong making a compelling claim to the title.It was on 12 October 1996 that New Zealand went to the polls for its first MMP election, finally breaking the stranglehold of the two big parties and granting Peters the balance of power.So, it was fitting that, 30 years and one day later, the minor parties had the debate stage and spotlight all to themselves. And boy, did they make the most of it.Each participant brought enthusiasm in spades to TVNZ's Multi-Party Debate, testing their differences and trading barbs.In the aftermath, ACT leader David Seymour held a can of Red Bull aloft, neatly capturing the extra energy injected since their last, almost-cordial confab at Stuff's Kingmakers debate.The contenders had plenty to be energised about. The 1News-Verian poll, released an hour before the showdown, put the parties' combined support above 40 percent - an extraordinary slice of the electorate.At the last election, the minor parties won just 31 percent of the vote. The election before that, 18 percent. And before that, a measly 15 percent.No longer are these just fringe outsiders. They are pivotal parties, some of whom will wield considerable influence over the next government.And according to the latest poll, the biggest bargaining chip could well belong to the newest player. Opportunity has surged to 8 percent, handing it the balance of power.From the debate's outset, its leader Qiulae Wong made clear her willingness to work with just about anybody on stage - even if the feeling was less reciprocal.At various points, she was criticised or dismissed outright by every other participant. But the political neophyte largely held her own, appearing unfazed by the badgering and laughing off the insults.The sharpest conflicts were with ideological opposite Winston Peters and her most alike, the Greens' Chlöe Swarbrick.Winston Peters (L) and Qiulae Wong at the debate.TVNZ / Harley PetersPeters invoked his decades of experience, even pointing out he'd met former Singapore PM Lee Kuan Yew, "unlike some people around here".The NZ First leader drew a deliberate contrast with Wong, describing her as having been around for only "five minutes".But Wong did not let the comments slide. She repeatedly challenged Peters, most forcefully over his comments on unity and diversity, which she labelled "really dangerous rhetoric".Nor did she retreat from her refusal to serve in a government with Peters as foreign minister, describing his remarks directed at Green MP Lawrence Xu-Nan as "clearly racist".One of the most instructive exchanges was with Swarbrick, when the exceptional moderator Tova O'Brien asked both leaders to explain what separated the Greens and Opportunity."The Green Party want to change the government," Swarbrick shot back, before rattling off the "massive attacks" she said the coalition government had inflicted over the past three years.Wong had a ready rejoinder too: "Imagine how many of those most egregious things … the Greens could have stopped if they were willing to work with National."That conveniently ignored that National was equally unprepared to work with the Greens. But it drove home a distinct difference - one party, prepared to act as a handbrake on "extreme ideas", the other preferring to be an accelerator for its own.Both leaders made their case clearly, and both have reason to be satisfied. Indeed, few of the participants will be particularly upset with how the night unfolded.David Seymour stood alone on several issues.TVNZ / Harley PetersSeymour was especially effective at carving out his own ground in a crowded field, repeatedly distinguishing ACT from its potential partners and opponents.On several issues, he stood alone - the only leader prepared to back drug-testing beneficiaries, and the only one willing to defend the supermarkets.Te Pāti Māori co-leader Rawiri Waititi also delivered a more assured performance than in the first showdown, speaking directly to his party's supporters.His priorities are different too. While the other parties are battling over their share of the party vote, Te Pāti Māori is concentrating on winning electorate seats.Waititi even suggested that strategy had done the Greens a favour: "You're welcome, Chlöe."Ultimately though, the stakes were highest for Opportunity - dependent on clearing that five percent threshold.The latest poll suggests the party has momentum, but last night's debate proves it has some muscle too.