Key Events This Week: CPI, PPI, Fed Speakers Galore And The End Of Earnings Season

Having dispensed with the October jobs report, which came in red hot and above all Wall Street estimates, yet the market seems rather unfazed by the prospect of more rate hikes, we now move on from payrolls to US inflation as the main macro focus this week, with October CPI tomorrow and PPI on Friday, alongside a busy slate of Fed speakers. As DB's Jim Reid notes, beyond the US, the key releases include China’s trade figures tomorrow, UK Q3 GDP on Thursday, and Japan’s October PPI on Thursday, while the corporate calendar includes Cisco, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz and SoftBank as Q3 winds down after another bumper quarter that’s been overshadowed by the recent market volatility.Earlier this morning, data showed that China's producer inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in nearly four-and-a-half years in October, as higher global oil prices drove up manufacturing costs, even as consumer inflation softened amid weak domestic demand. Producer prices (PPI) rose 5.7% year-on-year, exceeding both September's 5.0% increase and expectations for a 5.3% gain. In contrast, consumer prices (CPI) increased 0.7% from a year earlier, slowing from 0.9% in September and coming in slightly below the consensus forecast of 0.8%. The divergent inflation trends highlight the challenges facing Beijing as it seeks to revive household consumption while maintaining momentum in the industrial sector. Although policymakers have introduced a range of measures to support spending and tackle excessive competition, a sustained recovery in consumer demand and prices remains elusive.Going through the week ahead in more detail, in the US, tomorrow’s October CPI is the centrepiece. DB economists expect headline CPI to rise by 0.20% month-on-month, down from 0.65% previously, with core CPI also up 0.20% after 0.33% last time. Because October 2025 index levels were not produced during last year’s government shutdown, year-on-year inflation rates cannot be calculated for this release. Within core goods, economists expect softer medical-care commodity prices to offset some strength in recreation and information-technology goods. In services, they expect owners’ equivalent rent to moderate from September, although recreation services could be firmer following streaming-price increases, while the annual health-insurance reset may provide a downward contribution.Friday’s October PPI will be important for the read-across to core PCE inflation. DB economists expect producer prices to rise by 0.20% month-on-month, compared with 0.32% in September, leaving the year-on-year rate broadly steady at 3.1%. The inflation releases arrive alongside a heavy run of Fed commentary, with around two-thirds of officials due to speak during the week. You’ll see them listed alongside the other major events in our day-by-day calendar at the end as usual. Attention will be on how policymakers assess the recent tightening in financial conditions against still-solid economic and labor-market momentum and inflation that remains above target. DB's economists also continue to expect 25bp rate increases at the December and March FOMC meetings, absent a further material tightening in financial conditions. US bond markets are closed on Wednesday for Veterans’ Day.In Europe, Thursday’s UK GDP report is the main event. Our economists expect September GDP to contract by -0.1% month-on-month but expect Q3 growth overall to reach 0.7% quarter-on-quarter. Norway and Denmark also publish October CPI tomorrow.Japan’s calendar includes the October Economy Watchers survey and September household spending tomorrow, alongside the BoJ’s summary of opinions from its October policy meeting. October PPI follows on Thursday. Elsewhere in the region, New Zealand holds a general election tomorrow. On the corporate side, the US earnings season is winding down, with close to 90% of S&P 500 companies having already reported. KKR reports today, followed by SoftBank tomorrow; Thursday brings Cisco, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz and Cerebras, among others. CoreWeave tomorrow and Cerebras on Thursday should also offer another read on AI-related demand and investment. Here is a detailed analysis of all the key events including a snapshot of the most important events. Courtesy of DB, here is a day-by-day calendar of eventsMonday November 9Data: US September wholesale trade sales, October NY Fed 1-yr inflation expectations, China October CPI, PPI, Japan September leading index, coincident index, Germany September trade balanceCentral banks: Fed's Bowman, Goolsbee and Barkin speak, BoE's Bailey speaks, ECB’s Cipollone speaksEarnings: UniCredit, KKR & Co, Constellation Energy, Skydance, Take-Two, Rocket LabAuctions: US 3-yr Notes ($58bn) Other: G7 foreign ministers meeting in France (through Tuesday), Eurogroup and Economic and Financial Affairs Council (ECOFIN) meetingsTuesday November 10 Data: US October CPI, NFIB small business optimism, China October trade balance, Japan October Economy Watchers survey, bank lending, September household spending, BoP current account balance, BoP trade balance, Denmark October CPI, Norway October CPI Central banks: Fed's Waller, Schmid, Bowman and Paulson speak, ECB's Cipollone, Lane and Escriva speak, BoE's Lombardelli and Pill speak, BoJ’s summary of opinions from October meeting, BoC summary of deliberations Earnings: SoftBank, Petrobras, Infineon, TransDigm, Alcon, Vodafone, Venture Global, CoreWeave Auctions: US 10-yr Notes ($42bn) Other: US-mediated talks between Russia and Ukraine (through Wednesday)Wednesday November 11Data: Japan October machine tool orders, M2, M3, Italy September industrial productionCentral banks: ECB’s Lagarde, Cipollone, Kazaks and Nagel speak Earnings: Siemens Energy, E.ON, RWE, Vestas Other: US Veterans’ Day Holiday (bond markets closed)Thursday November 12Data: US October existing home sales, federal budget balance, initial jobless claims, UK Q3 GDP, October RICS house price balance, Japan October PPI, Germany September current account balance, Canada September building permits Central banks: Fed's Hammack, Barr, Goolsbee, Daly and Williams speak, ECB’s Lagarde, Vujcic and Nagel speak, BoJ's Asada speaks, ECB’s economic bulletin Earnings: Cisco, Applied Materials, Siemens, Allianz, Enel, Munich Re, Nebius, 3i Group, Cerebras Auctions: US 30-yr Bonds ($25bn) Other: European Political Community Summit Friday November 13 Data: US October PPI, China Q3 BoP current account balance, Germany October wholesale price index, Italy September trade balance, Eurozone September trade balance, Canada September manufacturing salesCentral banks: Fed's Bowman and Daly speak, ECB's Simkus, Schnabel and Zigman speak Earnings: Richemont Other: Informal meeting of EU heads of state or governmentLooking at just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the CPI report on Tuesday. There are many speaking engagements with Fed officials this week.Monday, November 908:40 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks; Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on community banking at the Mutual Board Summit Conference. Q&A is expected.10:00 AM Wholesale inventories, September final (consensus +0.6%, last +0.6%)10:00 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at a Leadership Greater Chicago event.12:15 PM Richmond Fed President Barkin (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Richmond Fed President Tom Barkin will speak at the Greater Greer Chamber of Commerce. Speech text, Q&A, and a livestream are expected. On November 5, Barkin said, "the implications for policy are pretty straightforward" and that a "gradual [pace of hikes] makes sense."Tuesday, November 1004:00 AM Fed Governor Waller speaks: Fed Governor Christopher Waller will speak on the economic outlook at the Bank of England and its Watchers Conference. Speech text and Q&A are expected.08:30 AM CPI (MoM), October (GS +0.21%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.6%); Core CPI (MoM), October (GS +0.16%, consensus +0.2%, last +0.3%): We estimate a 0.16% increase in October core CPI (month-over-month SA). On the softer side, we expect deflation in some autos categories, including a 1.5% decline in used car prices and a 0.3% decline in the car insurance category. We expect a 0.1% decline in medical services prices, reflecting a large decline in medical insurance prices (-2.5%) as a result of the semiannual source data update in this month’s report that more than offsets upward pressure from potential seasonal distortions in other medical care services categories. Additionally, we expect the airfares category to be unchanged on a month-over-month basis—following average monthly increases of 2.5% so far this year—reflecting the signal from alternative price data. After last month's jump, we forecast more moderate increases in the shelter categories—a 0.26% increase in the OER category and a 0.23% increase in the rent category—reflecting the continued slowdown in their underlying trend. On the firmer side, the October seasonal factors have been distorted by the approach the Bureau of Labor Statistics is using to interpolate the data that are missing because of last year’s government shutdown for the purposes of calculating updated seasonal factors. We estimate that this new source of residual seasonality will unduly boost October seasonally-adjusted core CPI inflation by 5bp, and provide a disproportionate boost to the public transportation, apparel, and hotels categories. We estimate a 0.21% rise in headline CPI—reflecting higher food (+0.4%) and energy (+0.5%) prices. Year-over-year calculations will not be available for most indexes, including the headline and core CPIs, reflecting missing values for October 2025 due to last year’s government shutdown that hampered data collection. Our forecast is consistent with a larger 0.23% monthly increase in the core PCE price index in October.10:50 AM Dallas Fed President Logan (FOMC voter) speaks: Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan will give opening remarks at the Dallas Fed's 11th annual Energy Conference. Speech text is expected. On October 30, Logan said, "It remains clear to me, given the current outlook, that the FOMC needs to implement at least two more 25-basis-point rate increases." She added, "After that, it would make sense in my view to pause and examine economic and financial developments to determine what further action may be appropriate."01:30 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will participate in a fireside chat on the economy and the energy sector at the Dallas Fed's 11th annual Energy Conference.03:30 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on the economic outlook at the Council on Foreign Relations. Speech text and Q&A are expected.06:30 PM Philadelphia Fed President Paulson (FOMC voter) speaks: Philadelphia Fed President Anna Paulson will speak on the economic outlook at the Philadelphia Fed's 81st Annual Field Meeting.06:30 PM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will deliver a speech on the economic outlook at an Unleash Prosperity Now event. Speech text and Q&A are expected.Wednesday, November 11Veterans Day. There are no major economic data releases scheduled. NYSE will be open. SIFMA recommends that bond markets remain closed.Thursday, November 1208:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended November 7 (GS 200k, consensus 195k, last 189k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended October 31 (consensus 1,709k, last 1,718k)09:00 AM Cleveland Fed President Hammack (FOMC voter) speaks: Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack will participate in a moderated conversation at Ohio State University's Max Fisher College of Business. On November 5, Hammack said, "I expect that monetary policy will need to move to a restrictive stance to bring inflation back to 2% in a timely manner, and getting to that stance through more frequent smaller adjustments when possible, something which would be less disruptive to households, businesses, and financial markets."10:00 AM Existing home sales, October (GS -4.0%, consensus -3.5%, last +1.5%)10:00 AM Fed Governor Barr speaks: Fed Governor Michael Barr will speak on artificial intelligence and inequality at Yale University. Speech text and Q&A are expected.11:15 AM Chicago Fed President Goolsbee (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee will participate in a moderated Q&A at Yahoo! Finance Invest 2026.01:10 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will deliver keynote remarks on economic policy in the age of AI at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Q&A is expected. On November 6, Daly said, "My expectation is, we're going to have to tighten policy further." She added, "The world seems volatile in many ways, and those volatilities are something that you have to take into account, collect more information, and be deliberate but more gradual in how you get there when you don't know exactly where you're going to need to head. But more is likely to be needed and certainly we're prepared - I'm prepared - to do that, if that's what the economy calls for."01:30 PM Kansas City Fed President Schmid (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Kansas City Fed President Jeff Schmid will speak on the economic outlook at the Affordable Housing Forum. Speech text and Q&A are expected.06:30 PM New York Fed President Williams (FOMC voter) speaks: New York Fed President John Williams will participate in a panel discussion organized by the University of California, Berkeley. Q&A is expected. On November 6, Williams said, "Inflation is absolutely too high. It's been too high for too long. It's absolutely essential that we bring inflation back to our 2% target in a timely manner and a sustained basis."Friday, November 1308:30 AM PPI final demand, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.4%, last +1.3%); PPI ex-food and energy, October (GS +0.2%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.7%); PPI ex-food, energy, and trade, October (GS +0.3%, consensus +0.3%, last +0.5%);09:10 AM Boston Fed President Collins (FOMC non-voter) speaks: Boston Fed President Susan Collins will deliver opening remarks on the US housing market at the Boston Fed's 70th Economic Conference. Speech text is expected.10:50 AM Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Bowman speaks: Fed Vice Chair for Supervision Michelle Bowman will speak on supervision and regulation at the Connecticut Bankers Association Annual Meeting and Conference. Q&A is expected.12:00 PM San Francisco Fed President Daly (FOMC non-voter) speaks: San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly will speak in a moderated discussion at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas Center for Business and Economic Research’s Outlook 2026 event.07:00 PM Fed Vice Chair Jefferson speaks: Fed Vice Chair Philip Jefferson will speak at the University of California San Diego's Economics Roundtable on technology and productivity. Speech text and Q&A are expected.Source: DB, Goldman