Keralam power crisis: Weak monsoon, rising demand & cancelled agreements

Over the last two weeks, the Keralam State Electricity Board (KSEB) has enforced multiple power cuts in the evenings and nights due to a severe power crisis in the state, leading the four-month-old UDF government to come under attack from the Opposition and sections of the public.Keralam Chief Minister VD Satheesan addresses a press briefing in Thiruvananthapuram on Wednesday. (PTI)The power cuts, ranging from 15 to 30 minutes at a time, have badly affected life, especially in households with infants and sick members, hospitals and old-age homes, and incited public anger against the administration.Chief minister VD Satheesan, at a press briefing in the state capital on Wednesday, said the crisis is expected to be brought under control within a week as the government is holding talks with several states and suppliers to purchase power at reasonable tariffs. KSEB chairman MG Rajamanickam flew to Delhi on Wednesday evening to hold talks with the chairman of Nuclear Power Corporation of India, hoping to sign agreements to purchase power to tide over the crisis. Notably, Kerala is the outlier among the southern states to face such a stinging power crisis, with other states possessing the generating capacity to meet their demands.The CM has promised that the State would formulate a revised power policy and prepare a plan to ensure adequate supply of power from October 1.Domestic production only one-fifth of demandImportantly, the domestic production of electricity by KSEB is only around 20% with the state having to depend on external agencies to meet its rising demands. Keralam acquires a share of power from the central grid, apart from striking short and long term contracts with public and private power suppliers. The state also has contracts with other states for a share of solar and wind energy aside from monthly deals with power exchanges.This month, the KSEB produced 23.06 million units of power while consumption has soared to 94.08 million units. Thus, it is forced to purchase around 71.02 million units from external sources, including power exchanges, other states and private power suppliers.El Nino and weak monsoonThe present crisis, according to government and KSEB officials, has emerged due to a combination of multiple factors. The El Nino phenomenon, causing the warming of surface waters of the Pacific Ocean near the equator and leading to rise in global temperatures, has resulted in a weakened southwest monsoon and a major deficiency in rainfall. Between June 1 and September 16, Keralam, according to the India Meteorological Department, recieved 1378.1 mm rainfall, against the normal of 1898.4 mm, a deficiency of 27%. Eight out of the state’s 14 districts have recorded deficient rainfall. The fall in rainfall has coincided with high day and night-time temperatures, leading to increased consumption of power especially in peak hours.According to the KSEB, power consumption after 6 pm in households has soared in September, compared to the same period last year. The public sector firm underlined that the demand soared to 4900-5100 MW during peak hours in September this year, the highest figures for the month in history. The demand marked a 15% rise over the same period last year. The soaring demand for power in peak hours, said government officials, has been driven by the widespread use of air-conditioners, coolers, charging of electric vehicles and induction stoves.The KSEB also flagged reduced water levels in major reservoirs due to a dip in rainfall, thus affecting the generation of hydel electricity. Water levels in KSEB-operated dams have shrunk to 63.75%, compared to 80.29% in the same period last year. In major dams like Idukki and Sabarigiri, the water levels are 63.18% and 67.03%, respectively, it added.Long-term agreement cancelledThe power crisis has also acquired political undertones and witnessed exchange of allegations. The UDF government has alleged that the current power shortage was a result of the termination of a 25-year agreement to purchase 465 MW of power at ₹4.29 per unit by the previous Pinarayi Vijayan government signed in 2015. The agreement had involved the purchase of power from two sources -- 115 MW from Jhabua Power Ltd at ₹4.15 a unit and 350 MW from Jhabua Jindal Power Limited at ₹4.29 a unit.However, Vijayan has rejected the allegations. He said the agreement was terminated by the Kerala State Electricity Regulatory Commission (KSERC) in 2023 as it was signed unilaterally by KSEB without prior approval from the Centre, the state government or KSERC. Vijayan said that there were various shortcomings in the agreement and accused the UDF government of trying to pass the blame on the previous regime to hide its “administrative incompetence.”At the time of terminating the 465 MW agreement, the State and the KSEB had been expecting to sign other agreements with external suppliers at cheaper rates. However, the deals did not materialise, officials have said, resulting in the present crisis.