Kalshi Is Cozy With Trump — But It’s Ramping Up Dem Hires and Campaign Spending

Since the start of the year, the prediction betting site Kalshi has two hired former officials from Joe Biden’s White House as a policy adviser and a top lobbyist. The company’s co-founders have also spent nearly $1 million on donations to federal candidates, with more than a third, or $377,000, going to Democrats like Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand, D-N.Y., according to a new report. Kalshi’s spending spree shows how much prediction market sites have ratcheted up their presence in Washington as regulators craft rules for the industry. While the sites’ close relationship with the Trump administration has drawn headlines, the report from the progressive group Demand Progress details how the industry’s influence operation crosses party lines. “They’ve been hopeful that they can have Democratic champions for their policy agenda.” The push for bipartisan relationships began months ago, but it could pay dividends as Democrats take over both chambers of a Congress, said Ella Fanger, the corporate power policy adviser for Demand Progress. A betting market critic, Fanger predicted that the companies will keep trying to win allies on both sides of the aisle. “They’ve been hopeful that they can have Democratic champions for their policy agenda,” she said, “and not just have Trump’s cronies sticking out their necks for them.” The hiring spree of former Biden officials and spending on Democratic candidates come as prediction markets are facing increasing scrutiny over betting on elections and a spate of suspicious trades from Washington about policy moves and even military action. On Tuesday, Democrats on Capitol Hill called for Trump to bar White House staffers from using the betting sites and, with Democrats taking Congress, many observers expect investigations into their use in Washington. In a statement, Kalshi said it was willing to work “across the ideological spectrum.” “Kalshi has had substantive conversations with policymakers over the past year regarding legislation that protects consumers, keeps minors off our platform, makes insider trading bans standard across the industry, and ensures the CFTC” — the Commodity Futures Trading Commission — “has the resources they need,” said the company’s head of government relations, John Bivona, a former Democratic congressional staffer and Biden White House official. “We’ve come out in support of legislation introduced by members across the ideological spectrum,” Bivona said, “and we’ve worked with dozens of lawmakers from both parties on these priorities.” Hiring Republicans — and Dems Kalshi and its rival Polymarket are the dominant players in the prediction market industry, which has flourished since Donald Trump became president thanks to his administration’s hands-off approach to regulation. The ties between the prediction betting sites and Trumpworld go all the way to the president’s inner circle, as evidenced by Donald Trump Jr.’s financial stakes at both competitors. Polymarket has also hired as a lobbyist a Republican former top official at the Commodity Futures Trading Commission. The federal regulatory body has, under the Trump administration, sued states for trying to regulate sports betting as gambling. The Demand Progress report covers Trump Jr.’s ties to the industry, but it also shines a light on the role of former Democratic congressional and executive branch staffers. Kalshi’s hires have tended toward establishment Democrats. Among them are Stephanie Cutter, a political strategist whose work spanned the Obama and Biden administrations as well as Kamala Harris’s campaign for president. Cutter was tapped as a policy adviser for Kalshi in April. Bivona was hired by Kalshi as its head of government relations in January. Tripled Lobbying Spend Overall, Kalshi has spent $1.8 million on lobbying in the first half of 2026, compared to $615,000 in all of 2025, according to the Demand Progress report. Polymarket spent a relatively meager $180,000 during the same period this year, compared to $360,000 last year. “It’s important for states to be able to regulate this industry as gambling, which is what it is.” Fanger, whose group is critical of the prediction markets’ attempts to neutralize state sports gambling regulators, said she is worried that a pliant Congress could approve the Trump administration’s favorable regulations. “The concern is basically just that we could get legislation that would codify the rulemaking that the CFTC has already begun,” she said, referring to the agency’s efforts to formally exercise jurisdiction over sports, political, cultural, and weather betting contracts. “And we think that it’s important for states to be able to regulate this industry as gambling, which is what it is.” The industry may need all the lobbyists it can get if progressives gain power in the next Congress. Rep. Maxine Waters, D-Calif., who is angling to chair the House Financial Services Committee, said in a letter last week that she wants to “rein in predatory lending and predatory platforms, including prediction markets, so that our constituents keep more of their hard-earned dollars in their pockets.” Waters is also a longtime foil to the crypto industry. Crypto currency interests alienated Democrats by spending tens of millions of campaign dollars on Republican Sen. Jon Husted of Ohio, who lost his seat to Democrat Sherrod Brown in the midterm election. While crypto has lavished money on campaign spending through a super PAC, the prediction market industry has opted for a quieter campaign of smaller donations routed through more traditional channels.