Jim Miller Offers Betting Value Against Terrance McKinney at UFC 334

May 9, 2026; Newark, New Jersey, UNITED STATES; Jim Miller (red gloves) reacts during the fight against Jared Gordon (blue gloves) during UFC 328 at Prudential Center. Mandatory Credit: John Jones-Imagn Images Many feel the way that you have to bet on UFC is parlaying heavy favorites together, but underdogs win approximately 35% of the time in the world’s largest MMA promotion. Don’t be afraid to hunt for them.Years ago, I developed a predictive model that uses in-fight stats and fighter attributes to simulate UFC fight outcomes — so long as the combatants had at least 30 completed octagon minutes or 5 total fights. I found that, in the UFC, moneyline favorites are usually overvalued.How is that possible? Well, in a fight environment with as many variables per second as MMA, it’s hard to see the difference between -150 and -350 in real time. Great bets can lose. Terrible bets can win by lucky measures.Every week, I’m going to give you my favorite underdog bet of the week. They’ll usually be showing value in my model, and I’ll explain their path to victory.Here’s my favorite bit of plus money available for UFC 334: Gane vs. HokitNote: All fight odds come via Polymarket, the official prediction market of UFC.Swaim’s Underdog of the Week: Jim Miller (+194)Model Odds: +139Model’s Favorite Exact Outcome and Implied Odds: Knockout (+469) Our Current Best OffersChannel debug: betting Welcome to the McKinney Zone.Terrance McKinney is one of the most unique, unfathomable athletes on the roster, posting the second-shortest average fight time (2:45) among active fighters. McKinney has eight Round 1 finishes to his name, but if it doesn’t come, all of that athleticism and explosive movement pays a price in just a matter of minutes.The UFC is pretty slick for this matchmaking after McKinney just lost to a 39-year-old King Green. It’s 43-year-old Jim “A-10” Miller’s turn to try to survive the most ferocious storm lightweight has to offer.Miller’s age is really the only factor that leads you to believe he’ll struggle with that, though. He hasn’t been knocked out (or finished in any capacity) in the first round since 2018. Both Charles Oliveira and Dan Hooker got him that year. Only the aforementioned Green has dropped the durable veteran in 16 appearances since the start of 2019. A-10’s striking defense (56%) is also above the divisional average (54%).I understand public perception around this fight that McKinney could swarm an athlete well past his prime, but Miller isn’t really the level of fighter that “T-Wrecks” has demolished. Each of McKinney’s last six wins are no longer on the UFC roster. Miller, 28-18 with the promotion, is one of its most decorated fighters ever.There’s a pretty clear window where, if Miller can survive in a clinch situation, he should cruise. I’ve still got him just 41.9% likely to win, so McKinney is a worthy favorite for that early storm. The odds it happens are just slightly inflated.In terms of how the veteran might get it done, I’ve got knockout (17.6%) more likely than submission (16.4%). That might be crazy when Miller is second in all-time UFC submissions (14), but every fight starts on the feet, and McKinney’s 42% striking defense is a trainwreck. He’s been KO’d in four of his six losses.I’d be remiss to not mention I’m largely with oddsmakers on expecting an early finish (91.5%) one way or another here. McKinney has never seen the scorecards in 27 pro fights. Our Current Best OffersChannel debug: betting