Jim Cramer: This is the bet you're making if you buy the Anthropic IPO

Anthropic has reached a major profitability milestone ahead of its expected blockbuster initial public offering next week. But CNBC's Jim Cramer warned Wednesday that the frontier AI lab's future spending commitments could make staying profitable a much bigger challenge."Anthropic is due to spend an enormous amount in the future, so it needs to continue growing rapidly to outrun those costs and remain profitable," the "Mad Money" host said. "That's the bet you're making if you buy the Anthropic IPO." The Claude developer became profitable on an adjusted operating basis for the first time in the second quarter of 2026 and remained positive in the third. Through the first nine months of 2026, Anthropic's adjusted operating income totaled $4.08 billion, according to its IPO prospectus. In calculating its adjusted operating income, Anthropic excludes stock-based compensation, noncash charitable contributions, and payments tied to a class-action copyright lawsuit settlement, according to its IPO prospectus. When following generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP, Anthropic had an operating loss of $1.26 billion through the third quarter of this year. "To be clear, Anthropic achieving profitability, even on this adjusted operating income basis, is no small matter," Cramer said. Another big difference between Anthropic's adjusted results and GAAP numbers appears when looking at net income. This metric appears at the bottom of a company's income statement and serves as the basis for calculating its earnings per share. For 2026, Anthropic reported a net loss of more than $104 billion through September, compared with adjusted net income of $5.6 billion. Much of that difference reflects a $94 billion noncash charge tied to the rising value of securities issued to partners such as Google and Amazon. Those arrangements have allowed Anthropic to secure computing resources without immediately paying cash, helping preserve much of the capital it has raised. Cramer cautioned against dismissing those charges entirely, arguing they reflect infrastructure costs the company would otherwise have paid in cash. Indeed, Cramer emphasized that investors cannot ignore Anthropic's purchase commitments and lease agreements for computing infrastructure. As of September, Anthropic has committed to spending in the future approximately $900 billion, largely on computing infrastructure, according to its prospectus. Anthropic's spending commitments include an agreement with SpaceX worth up to $120.5 billion through 2029, alongside deals with Alphabet's Google, Amazon, Microsoft and other computing providers. Roughly half of its $900 billion in commitments is expected to come due by the end of 2030. About $70 billion is expected over the next year alone. "Long story short, Anthropic's compute costs — its cash compute costs — are going to explode," Cramer said. In its IPO roadshow presentation, Anthropic projected that computing and infrastructure expenses would eventually account for 45% to 50% of revenue, supporting a long-term adjusted operating margin of roughly 35%. Cramer's key point Wednesday is that reaching that margin target will require sustained revenue growth. On Tuesday, Cramer highlighted Anthropic's 1,206% year over year revenue growth during the first nine months of 2026, but the company will need to keep growing rapidly to stay ahead of its mounting infrastructure costs."You have to assume that this company's going to continue growing substantially – to the point where it has hundreds of billions of revenue per year, and soon," Cramer said Wednesday. "That's the only way this works."The stakes extend beyond Anthropic itself. On Monday, Cramer warned that the company's IPO could be a crucial test for the broader AI trade, given how heavily companies depend on its continued spending.Anthropic is expected to price its IPO on Nov. 18 and begin trading on the Nasdaq on Nov. 19, CNBC's Leslie Picker reported Tuesday.Jim Cramer's Guide to Investing