It wouldn't shock me IF ... for NFL Week 1: Tua one-and-done as QB1, Patrick Mahomes under siege on 'MNF'

We're here. Can you believe it? We finally made it to Week 1, and we have a full regular season in front of us to watch unfold. What a time to be alive! Of course, as we begin the new season, there's an onslaught of predictions that flood in about what folks think will happen between now and when we kick off Super Bowl LXI from SoFi Stadium in February. That ranges from who we think will win their respective division, MVP, the Super Bowl, and everything in between. But how about we start with Week 1? Below, we're going to highlight a handful of potential storylines and/or individual results that may sound far-fetched right now as we stand in front of Week 1, but we wouldn't be shocked if they happen over the course of the slate. All NFL odds via DraftKings Sportsbook.It wouldn't shock me if ... David Montgomery rushes for 100-plus yards While David Montgomery has been in the league for quite a bit, he's the shiny new toy in the Texans offense after the franchise struck a trade with the Lions to acquire the runner this offseason. Houston has been desperate for any sort of presence on the ground, especially after a 2025 campaign where they got next to nothing out of the backfield. Texans rushing in 2025StatNFL rankRushing yards per game108.922ndYards per rush3.929thYards per rush after contact2.532ndRushing TDs9T-27thDespite those lackluster numbers, the Texans still ran the football 475 times in 2025, which ranked in the top half of the league. They want to run the ball and now have a back (and a revamped offensive line) capable of doing just that. Now that we've established Houston's eagerness to run the football, let's look at the matchup, which is tasty for Montgomery. The Bills were horrendous against the run in 2025, ranking at or near the bottom of the league in key metrics. Bills run defense in 2025StatNFL RankRushing yards per game allowed136.228thYards per rush allowed5.130thRushing touchdowns allowed24T-LastWhile Buffalo did add the likes of Bradley Chubb and T.J. Parker this offseason, those additions are more geared toward pressuring the quarterback than they are at stopping the run. Even the return of defensive tackle Ed Oliver (limited to three games last season) is more a boost to the pass rush, so it stands to wonder if the Bills have actually addressed this glaring hole on defense. Meanwhile, Josh Allen doesn't have the strongest history against the Texans, and if the Bills offense is stagnant, it'd behoove Houston to lean even more on Montgomery to churn the clock, especially if he's excelling on the ground against an advantageous matchup. Gambling angle to note: David Montgomery is +670 to rush for 100-plus yards in Week 1.It wouldn't shock me if ... Devaughn Vele scores a touchdown The Lions are expected to bounce back in a big way in 2026 after missing the playoffs last year, but the secondary still has some questions entering Week 1. Safeties Brian Branch and Kerby Joseph are beginning the year on the PUP list, and former first-round corner Terrion Arnold was released this offseason due to off-the-field issues. That leaves a cornerback room consisting of veterans Rock Ya-Sin and D.J. Reed on the boundary, with Roger McCreary and Christian Izien likely manning the slot. Of course, their attention will mainly be paid to Chris Olave, who is the clear-cut No. 1 option in the Saints passing game, and they may even be eyeing tight end Juwan Johnson after that. However, Devaughn Vele is someone who should be on your radar, whether it be for him to find paydirt (like we believe he will) or simply having a strong outing against a questionable Detroit secondary. Lions defense in 2025StatNFL RankPoints per game allowed24.322ndYards per attempt allowed7.324thPassing TDs allowed 3126th20-yard plays allowed6826thWith first-round rookie Jordyn Tyson (hamstring) beginning the year on IR, Vele is the No. 2 receiver for New Orleans, and the 28-year-old did have a solid rapport with Tyler Shough down the stretch last season. After Shough became the starter in Week 9, Vele caught 20 of his 29 targets for 254 yards (42.3 per game) and a touchdown. That includes a Week 13 game where he caught all eight of his targets for 93 yards and a touchdown. That's the type of outing we wouldn't be surprised to see him have in Week 1. Vele is 6-foot-5 and can line up both on the outside and in the slot. Given the finite amount of pass catchers New Orleans has, a big target share could be on deck for him in Week 1, giving him a chance to reach the end zone. Gambling angle to note: Devaughn Vele is +380 to score a touchdown in Week 1.It wouldn't shock me if ... Brock Bowers has 100-plus receiving yards Bowers is widely considered to be either at or near the top of the list when it comes to the best tight ends in the NFL. Even after an injury-plagued season in 2025, Bowers ranks third all-time at the position for the most receiving yards (1,874) in the first two years of his career. He now gets an upgrade at quarterback in Kirk Cousins (who'll start the year as QB1 over No. 1 overall pick Fernando Mendoza) and has a new head coach in Klint Kubiak. The addition of Kubiak is noteworthy considering how he used wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba last year in Seattle. Smith-Njigba was the clear top option in the passing game for the Seahawks, and Kubiak was not shy about peppering him, as he commanded a 36% target share (first in the NFL). Now, Bowers is that clear top option, so it stands to reason he'll get something close to the JSN treatment. That's especially true given Las Vegas' receiver room isn't bursting with household names. Bowers had 86 targets last season, which ranked second on the team. The only reason he wasn't No. 1 was that he was limited to 12 games. When he did play, he was averaging 7.1 targets per game. That number should only increase in Year 1 of Kubiak's system. Meanwhile, Bowers will see a Dolphins defense in Week 1 that surrendered the fourth-most receiving yards to tight ends last season. After notching 103 receiving yards in Week 1 last season, Bowers would become just the third tight end in NFL history to top 100 receiving yards in back-to-back season openers, joining Ben Coates (1994-95) and Julius Thomas (2013-14).Gambling angle to note: Brock Bowers is +339 to record 100-plus receiving yards in Week 1. It wouldn't shock me if ... Patrick Mahomes is sacked five-plus times Patrick Mahomes is set to make his return in Week 1 after suffering a torn ACL and LCL in Week 15 last season. While it's a remarkable feat for Mahomes to come back nine months to the day of his injury, facing the Denver Broncos on "Monday Night Football" probably isn't the welcome-back gift he had in mind. One question I have about Mahomes as he mounts this comeback is his mobility. His ability to use his legs to extend plays and dance around the pocket is one of the reasons he's already a no-doubt Hall of Famer. That said, I wonder if that piece of his game—his escapeability—is one of the last things to truly come back. If so, that could mean he'll hit the turf more than once in this primetime matchup. Kansas City has real questions surrounding its offensive tackles entering the season. The Chiefs' 2025 first-round pick Josh Simmons has been penciled in as the starter at left tackle, but he may be sidelined for Week 1. Andy Reid told reporters on Tuesday that there's "a good chance" Simmons doesn't play in the opener due to a back injury. In the event he doesn't play, that'd see undrafted rookie Kahlil Benson elevate to the starting role blocking Mahomes' blindside. Meanwhile, Jaylon Moore is set to start at right tackle after the team parted ways with Jawaan Taylor this offseason. In spot appearances last year (42% of the offensive snaps), Moore gave up three sacks and 23 pressures. So, the duo of Benson and Moore is what stands between Mahomes and a Denver Broncos pass rush that has been otherworldly over the past two years. In that span, they have tallied 131 sacks, 33 more than the next-closest team. With questions at both tackle spots, this is an opportunity for Nik Bonitto and Co. to tee off. In 14 games played last season, Mahomes was sacked 34 times. That's the second-highest of his career (36 times in 2024 over 16 games played) and averages out to roughly 2.4 sacks taken per game. The most times Mahomes has been sacked in a game was six, which came against the Philadelphia Eagles in Super Bowl LIX. The most he's been sacked in his regular-season career is five. That occurred in four different instances, including ... his most recent game played, when he suffered his knee injury in Week 15 against the Chargers. Gambling angle to note: Broncos are +124 to win outright vs. Chiefs in Week 1.It wouldn't shock me if ... Tua Tagovailoa is one-and-done as the Falcons starter It took Kevin Stefanski basically until the stroke of midnight to name a starter in Atlanta. He ultimately chose Tua Tagovailoa, but it feels like a default decision rather than a victory for the former Dolphins signal-caller. After that decision went public, Michael Penix Jr. said he told Stefanski he wasn't ready to take on the role as he works his way back from a torn ACL. "I just told him I'm not where I want to be right now," Penix told reporters Monday, via the official team website. "And I want to be able to be 100% so I can help the team win football games. And I'm really close. Really close." If that's the case, there really was no decision to make. Really, and this is just gut intuition, it felt like Stefanski waited until the last possible minute to see if Penix could be healthy enough to play. Once it became clear he wasn't quite ready, he made the call in favor of Tagovailoa. After all, Tagovailoa didn't have the most inspiring preseason by any stretch of the imagination. In fact, Pro Football Focus graded him the lowest of any of the three Falcons quarterbacks we saw this preseason, with both Cooper Rush and Jack Strand putting together better showings when they got their opportunity in exhibitions. And that brings us to Week 1, where Tagovailoa and the Falcons have a sneaky difficult matchup on the road against the Pittsburgh Steelers. While much of the attention went to Pittsburgh bringing in new head coach Mike McCarthy, its defense was bolstered in the offseason as well, adding veteran corner Jamel Dean along with safety Jaquan Brisker. Provided that Joey Porter Jr. (who is in a contract spat with the team) plays, that's a stout secondary to deal with, especially with T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith pressuring Tagovailoa off the edge. Last season, Pittsburgh ranked fourth in the NFL in total takeaways, and Tagovailoa is coming off a 2025 campaign in which he notched a career-high 15 interceptions. If the Steelers' ability to turn the ball over carries over from last year and Tagovailoa's turnovers persist, it could be a rough debut. Maybe even so rough that it could emphasize Penix, who admitted he's "really close" to being 100%, to suit up for Week 2.Gambling angle to note: Tua Tagovailoa is -166 to throw one interception and +265 to record two interceptions in Week 1. Over 2.5 turnovers for the entire Falcons-Steelers matchup is -115.