ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 4, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Russian sources falsely and baselessly claimed that Russian forces encircled 2,000 Ukrainian forces northeast of Kharkiv City. Russian forces attempted to assassinate Ukraine’s Security Service (SBU) head Oleksandr Poklad with a Geran-type drone strike on September 4. The Russian Geran drone platform adaptations are improving their ability to conduct successful high-precision strikes. The Kremlin’s behavior indicates Russia’s unwillingness to guarantee the safety of the US delegation during their reported upcoming visit to Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears committed to his existing expensive and inefficient force generation mechanism through volunteer recruitment. Russia’s expedited efforts to establish its Rassvet satellite constellation as a replacement for Starlink are facing significant challenges which may degrade the constellation’s lifespan. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian military, oil, and defense-industrial infrastructure on September 3 and 4. Russian forces launched one Kh-31P anti-radar missile and 121 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces advanced in the Dobropillya tactical area. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.