ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 29, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Ukraine’s 3rd Army Corps publicized details on the third phase of Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction, which included successfully feinting and deceiving Russian forces and the liberation of Nove, Ridkodub, Katerynivka, Karpivka, and Novomykhailivka (all north of Lyman). Operation Vivaldi is fueling Russian ultranationalist milblogger discourse about how the pervasive culture of lying within the Russian military is harming Russian forces and facilitating Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction. The Kremlin is restricting publicly available information regarding Russia’s oil and gas industry, likely in an effort to conceal and protect Russian oil supplies for a variety of reasons, including from Ukrainian strikes, Western sanctions, or domestic Russian discontent and panic stemming from fuel shortages. Russian forces conducted a drone strike mere kilometers from the Ukrainian-Polish border near the Yahodyn border crossing for the second time in September 2026. Poland announced its intent to change its air defense rules of engagement following the strike. Russian President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on September 28 transferring the assets of German wholesale retailer Metro AG in Russia to “temporary” management under Russian company UK Torg Rus LLC. Russian Colonel General Alexander Lapin, who previously commanded the Central and Northern groupings of forces in Ukraine, became the deputy prime minister of the Republic of Tatarstan on September 28. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russia launched 289 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure and military assets on the night of September 27 to 28. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.