ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 24, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Several recent incidents in Europe, including drone incursions and acts of sabotage, were conducted by Russia or are likely attributable to Russia, as Western officials are increasingly warning of intensified Russian kinetic activity against Europe in the near future. Other recent incidents in Poland and Germany fit the Russian pattern of provocations against European defense and logistical infrastructure, but authorities have yet to officially attribute them to Russia. Western defense and intelligence sources continue warning about potential future Russian attacks in Europe. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to baselessly claim a Russian encirclement of Dobropillya as part of the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare effort to exaggerate Russian battlefield successes and portray Ukrainian defenses as collapsing. There has been no evidence from the battlefield in recent weeks suggesting significant Russian advances toward Dobropillya, and recent Ukrainian reports refute the Russian claims. Ukraine and the United States remain committed to limited ceasefires and peace negotiations to end the war. Russian officials reported that Ukrainian forces conducted long-range strikes against Russian energy and industrial infrastructure in Rostov Oblast and Krasnodar Krai. Russia launched an unspecified number of Zircon anti-ship missiles and Iskander-M/S-400/KN-23 ballistic missiles and 282 drones against Ukraine overnight. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces advanced on September 24. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.