ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 23, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: High-ranking Kremlin officials effectively rejected the US-Ukrainian-proposed limited energy ceasefire and continued reiterating Russia’s unwillingness to engage in any meaningful peace negotiations. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and Russian milbloggers are simultaneously doubling down on baseless claims that Russian forces have encircled Ukrainian forces in various sectors of the frontline, likely as part of the Kremlin’s cognitive warfare campaign to portray Ukrainian defenses as collapsing. Ukrainian and Russian sources continue to refute Russia’s baseless claims of encirclements. A Russian Mi-8 helicopter violated Polish airspace in Braniewo (near Kaliningrad) — a marked escalation in Russia’s aggressive behavior toward NATO states. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Kupyansk direction, in the Chasiv Yar tactical area, and in the Novopavlivka and Oleksandrivka directions. Russian forces recently advanced near Kostyantynivka and south of Dobropillya. Russian forces launched 161 drones against Ukraine overnight. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.