ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 19, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues to greatly exaggerate the extent of Russian advances across the frontline to construct a false narrative of Russian battlefield progress for domestic and international audiences. The unusual MoD statement comes in the midst of Russian State Duma elections and shortly before the convening of the United Nations General Assembly in New York. The Russian MoD also tried to deny Ukrainian successes in the Lyman direction by presenting an inaccurate picture of the battlefield that denies the ample evidence provided by Russian milbloggers, Ukrainian sources, and geolocated footage. The Russian MoD’s claims likely aim to shape Russian voters’ perceptions of the war during the ongoing State Duma elections as well as the perceptions of foreign governments that support Ukraine. Ukrainian forces extensively targeted Russian drone operators as part of their battlefield-shaping effort that enabled Ukrainian drone overmatch prior to Ukraine’s Operation Vivaldi in the Lyman direction. The US Department of State approved on September 18 the sale of air defense equipment worth $2.68 billion to Ukraine. US President Donald Trump signed the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act on September 18. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the eastern Fortress Belt and Oleksandrivka directions, while Russian forces recently advanced in the southern Fortress Belt direction. Russia launched two Zirkon anti-ship missiles and 174 drones and loitering munitions at Ukraine overnight. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.