ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 16, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Russian President Vladimir Putin is framing the State Duma elections as a referendum on his war in Ukraine after setting conditions to ensure his desired outcome. Lithuanian President Gitanas Nauseda confirmed that a Russian Gerbera drone entered Lithuanian airspace on the night of September 14 to 15. Ukrainian forces struck and killed the commander of the Russian 4th Motorized Rifle Brigade (3rd Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) Major General Anton Grunis in a targeted drone strike in occupied Donetsk City on September 12. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky confirmed that Russian drones targeted his plane in Moldova twice in the past two weeks. Russia launched 80 drones against Ukraine overnight. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in the Lyman tactical area, on the eastern flank of the Fortress Belt, and in the Oleksandrivka direction. Russian forces recently advanced in the Lyman tactical area and western Zaporizhia Oblast. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.