ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 31, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Russia and Ukraine completed a remarkably successful humanitarian mission in occupied Kherson Oblast, as some Ukrainian civilians returned to Ukrainian-controlled territory. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces appear to have largely abided by the terms of the localized ceasefire in occupied Kherson Oblast since it came into effect on the morning of October 27, although there are limited allegations of ceasefire violations. The Kremlin is refusing to compromise on its original maximalist demands from 2022 while continuing to ignore Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s offers of large-scale frontline ceasefires as Russia’s losses grow disproportionately to its territorial gains. The Kremlin is attempting to portray Ukrainian long-range strikes against Russia as the obstacle to peace talks – the latest Russian effort to falsely blame Ukraine for Russia’s refusal to meaningfully engage in negotiations. The Kremlin continues to try to push European leaders out of peace talks, despite Russian demands that a peace settlement restructure the European security architecture. The US Department of State approved the possible sale of 500 PAC-3 Patriot ballistic missile interceptors to Ukraine, but the delivery will reportedly not occur for several years. Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Borova. Ukrainian forces struck a Russian defense industrial facility in Rostov Oblast and two oil refineries in Ufa, Bashkortostan Republic on October 31 and overnight on October 30 to 31. Russian forces launched 134 drones against Ukraine overnight on October 30 to 31 and 168 drones and loitering munitions during the day on October 31. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.