ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 15, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Ukrainian forces reportedly regained unrestricted access to Starshield on October 15, following in-motion speed restrictions on SpaceX’s Starshield communications network over Ukraine. High-ranking Kremlin officials continue to emphasize that there is and was no energy ceasefire agreement, rejecting any meaningful concept of a ceasefire proposal. Ukrainian forces struck six Russian Su-34M fighter-bombers at the Borisoglebsk Military Airfield in Voronezh Oblast overnight on October 14 to 15. Likely Russian drones struck four civilian vessels in the Black Sea, including two commercial tankers in Romanian territorial waters on October 14 and 15. Ukrainian forces likely struck the Ryazan Oil Refinery in Ryazan Oblast overnight on October 14 to 15. Russia launched two Kh-59 cruise missiles and 580 drones against Ukraine overnight on October 14 to 15 and 138 drones during the day on October 15. Ukrainian forces recently advanced north of Kupyansk and southwest of Orikhiv. See the original here.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official.