ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, October 13, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Senior Russian officials explicitly stated that the war in Iran — not Ukrainian strikes against Russian oil refineries — is the primary driver of global diesel shortages, while simultaneously using the October 9 fuel agreement to convince the US to support its negotiation position. Russian officials are meanwhile attempting to assuage the Russian domestic populace’s fears of domestic fuel shortages. Likely Russian drones struck two civilian vessels in the Bulgarian Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ) in the southwestern Black Sea overnight on October 12 to 13. French authorities seized a Russian shadow fleet oil tanker in the Indian Ocean on October 12. Ukrainian forces recently advanced northeast of Sumy City. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russia’s critical and ballistic missile infrastructure. Russian forces launched five Iskander-M or S-400 ballistic missiles, 108 drones, and nine Banderol or Dan-T loitering munitions against Ukraine overnight. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.