ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 5, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: The Kremlin is weaponizing humanitarian crises Russia itself has created in order to court the Trump Administration. The reported arrest of a prominent Russian milblogger for his coverage of the Oleshky ceasefire is likely part of long-standing Kremlin efforts to censor critical information space actors. Russia appears to be struggling to export diesel to the United States under the October 9 US-Russia diesel fuel agreement. The Russian military is continuing the process of forming new maneuver divisions as part of longstanding plans to transition towards a force structure based on divisions and mass. Iran reportedly sought to acquire Russian military equipment in 2023 and 2024 that could support the regime’s counterinsurgency efforts. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian logistical, industrial, and oil infrastructure in Ryazan and Oryol oblasts. Ukrainian forces recently advanced in western Zaporizhia Oblast. Russian forces launched two Kh-35 anti-ship missiles and 128 drones against Ukraine overnight. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.