ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 3, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Russian forces conducted a large, combined drone and missile strike against Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight on November 2 to 3 as part of Russia’s strike campaign aimed at inflicting increasing costs on Ukrainian society and coercing Ukraine into capitulating over the winter. Polish authorities prevented a Russian provocation along Poland’s international border with Russia on the night of November 2 to 3. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov likely indirectly responded to Poland’s recent defensive measures against Russia by falsely framing Poland as the aggressor. Ukrainian, US, and Russian officials provided new details on upcoming trilateral negotiations set to take place on November 10 and 11 in Abu Dhabi, United Arab Emirates. The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and regional authorities are increasingly cutting and delaying non-essential military and recruitment expenditures amid failures to adequately address rising budget deficits. The Kremlin is weaponizing limited information about an internal Ukrainian clash to exploit genuine concern over mobilization and stoke division in Ukrainian society. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian oil infrastructure in Yaroslavl Oblast. Neither Ukrainian nor Russian forces advanced on November 3. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.