ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, November 13, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: The United States and Ukraine continue to view the involvement of European officials in future peace negotiations with Russia as necessary. Moscow, however, is willing to let European officials participate in talks only about a new European security architecture – not about resolving the war in Ukraine – and continues to insist that Europe concede fully to Russia’s original 2021 demand to dismantle NATO. Kremlin officials are accepting the idea of European participation in future peace negotiations only as they relate to Russian efforts to dismantle the post-Cold War security architecture in Europe. Russian officials continue to call for a humanitarian mission in Kostyantynivka, Donetsk Oblast, based on the false parallelism between Kostyantynivka and occupied Oleshky, Kherson Oblast, that the Kremlin is trying to construct. A ceasefire, like the one in Oleshky, is impossible to execute in Kostyantynivka, however, because the actual frontline military situations are not comparable. ISW continues to assess that the Kremlin is very likely seeking to use a temporary localized ceasefire in Kostyantynivka to set conditions for a military build-up in the area needed to drive northward to Druzhkivka, one of Ukraine’s most heavily fortified cities on the Fortress Belt defense line. Ukrainian officials continue to report disruptions in SpaceX’s Starshield satellite communications services that are significantly hindering Ukraine’s ability to intercept Russian drones and conduct its intermediate-range strike campaign in occupied Ukraine, despite SpaceX denials. Russia is using seized assets of Western companies operating in Russia to fund its war in Ukraine. An improvised explosive device (IED) detonated in Moscow City on November 13 and injured a former advisor to former pro-Russian Ukrainian Prime Minister Mykola Azarov. Ukrainian forces recently advanced east of Slovyansk and south of Novopavlivka. Russia launched 117 drones against Ukraine overnight. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.