ISW Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, July 29, 2026

Key Takeaways from the ISW: Russian forces conducted a large-scale strike series against Ukraine on the night of July 29 to 30 that featured a particularly large number of missiles and aimed to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of ballistic missile interceptors. Russian missile strikes targeted a wide swathe of Ukraine’s deep rear and resulted in high civilian casualties. Russian forces continue to increase the number of missiles while decreasing the number of drones in strike packages, likely to exploit Ukraine’s shortage of ballistic missile interceptors, while Ukraine’s drone interception rate remains high. Russia also used at least one North Korean-provided ballistic missile for the first time since Summer 2025 following reported recent North Korean missile deliveries to Russia. A likely Russian Kh-101 cruise missile crashed in eastern Poland during Russia’s large-scale missile strikes against western Ukraine on the night of July 29 to 30. Russian missile and drone incursions into NATO territory during Russian strikes on Ukraine appear to be a risk the Kremlin has accepted. Ukrainian forces are attempting to help NATO defend its airspace and territory during large Russian missile and drone strikes that threaten NATO members. Ukraine’s continued strike campaign against Wildberries warehouses (the closest Russian equivalent to Amazon) throughout Russia is imposing significant costs on the company’s retailers and consumers. Russian authorities appear to be focusing on resolving Wildberries’ supply issues affecting ordinary Russians, as opposed to the more pressing issue of protecting the Russian rear against Ukrainian strikes. Recently appointed Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Major General Mykhailo Drapatyi is starting to make personnel changes as he takes command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) and government continue to undergo personnel shuffles. Russian forces continued their campaigns against Ukrainian port infrastructure and merchant ships. Ukrainian forces continued their long-range strike campaign against Russian port and oil infrastructure on the night of July 29 to 30. Neither Russian nor Ukrainian forces made confirmed advances on July 30. JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. See the original here.