Israel to vote in post-war polls; Netanyahu faces tight contest from ex-IDF chief

Israel is set to go to the polls on Tuesday, October 27, in what many call the most important election in its recent history. It is the first national vote since the Hamas attack of October 7, 2023, which triggered the war in Gaza, followed by a widening conflict that spread to Lebanon and later escalated into a war with Iran after joint US-Israeli strikes on Tehran.At the centre of the contest is Benjamin Netanyahu, Israel's incumbent and longest-serving Prime Minister. He is fighting for another term against a field led by former chief of Israel Defense Forces (IDF), Gadi Eisenkot, whose Yashar party has surged in the polls.THOUSANDS RALLY AGAINST NETANYAHUA large crowd gathered in Tel Aviv to stage a final protest against Netanyahu and his government ahead of the October 27 election. Thousands showed up for the rally, according to the Associated Press.The protesters called for a commission of enquiry into the security failures that led to the Hamas-led October 7, 2023, attack, which triggered the war in Gaza. The PM has refused such a probe.Eisenkot attended the rally, which echoed the protests that were once organised on a weekly basis to demand the release of hostages taken to Gaza. All the hostages or their remains were eventually returned, but Netanyahu has been accused of delaying deals that could have secured their release sooner.HOW ISRAEL VOTES?Israel's proportional representation system is very different from India's electoral process.While Indians elect individual candidates from constituencies under the first-past-the-post system, Israel treats the entire country as a single constituency.Voters in Israel choose a party rather than an individual candidate, and parliamentary seats are allocated in proportion to each party's share of the vote.Behind a cardboard screen, each Israeli voter picks a paper slip marked with the party's Hebrew letters, seals it in an envelope and drops it in the ballot box.The Knesset, Israel's parliament, has 120 seats. A party needs at least 3.25% of the national vote to win any. A government needs the support of 61 members.No party has ever won a majority alone, so Israel is always ruled by coalitions.WHAT OPINION POLLS SAY?The final opinion polls published before the beginning of the election silence period put Eisenkot's Yashar narrowly ahead of Netanyahu's Likud.Neither side reaches 61. Netanyahu's bloc is projected at about 50 seats, and the opposition at 52 to 56. Arab parties, with 14 to 16 seats, could prove decisive.A Kan News poll found the economy (34%) and security (32%) are voters' top concerns. Another hot issue is whether ultra-Orthodox men should be drafted into the army.WHAT HAPPENS NEXT?According to the Israeli electoral process, the counting will start immediately after the last vote is cast on the ballot. Technically, voting can start even when polling is on in other areas.The outcome of the election will be clear by the early hours of October 28, though official results are due on November 4.The President will then ask one leader to form a government. That leader gets 28 days, plus a possible 14-day extension.If no one succeeds, Israel could face yet another election. Until then, the current government stays on in a caretaker capacity.OUTCOME'S LIKELY IMPACT ON INDIAIndia and Israel have had full-fledged diplomatic ties since 1992.Mishelle Serota, spokesperson for the Embassy of Israel in India, told India Today there is "a very strong consensus in Israel that India is a strategic and important partner, no matter who's going to be the leader."India's stakes are high with major investments in the Haifa Port.Israel is a key defence partner, and Haifa sits at the heart of the planned India–Middle East–Europe Economic Corridor (IMEC).Whoever wins on Tuesday will shape Gaza's future, the confrontation with Iran and a partnership that matters to New Delhi.- Ends(With additional inputs from agencies)