Israel election 2026 live: Betting markets predicting stunning Netanyahu defeat despite Trump’s backing

Israeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu is tipped for a stunning defeat in today’s legislative elections despite receiving a glowing endorsement from Donald Trump.Sixty per cent of betters on prediction market Polymarket backed centrist challenger Gadi Eisenkot to become the next premier, ahead of 27 per cent for Netanyahu.Israeli opinion polls suggest a tight contest, with neither Netanyahu’s ruling Likud bloc nor an opposition alliance around Eisenkot likely to secure the 61 seats needed for a majority.Polls opened at 7am local time on Tuesday and will run until 10pm in the country’s first opportunity to deliver a verdict on the response to the greatest domestic security failure in generations - the October 7 attacks - and the subsequent conflicts with Hamas and Iran.Before polls opened, US president Trump reiterated his “complete and total” support for Netanyahu, writing that he had been “strong, brave and brilliant in the face of tremendous opposition”.He alluded to the unresolved US-Israeli conflict with Iran, writing: “Unless they change their ways, rapidly, we will soon finish the job.”“If Israel has the wrong leader, which would be anyone other than Bibi [Netanyahu], America will have to do this work ourselves, and I am not inclined to do so.”Who is firebrand candidate Itamar Ben-Gvir?Benjamin Netanyahu’s hawkish national security minister Itamar Ben-Gvir had existed on the fringes of Israeli politics before the war in Gaza brought his fiery, unmoderated rhetoric to younger voters who may have once considered him beyond the pale.The firebrand police chief has pushed Israeli politics further to the far right with his inflammatory comments and policies, which include urging “all of Lebanon must burn” for the deaths of IDF soldiers across the border, mocking foreign activists captured at sea trying to bring aid to Gaza, and trying to move crocodiles to a prison holding Palestinian detainees.Israel's National Security Minister and Otzma Yehudit party leader Itamar Ben Gvir with his wife, Ayala Ben-Gvir (Getty)Ahead of the election, polls show a boost in support for his Jewish Power party, which has managed to reach beyond its traditional base of settlers in the occupied West Bank and find a new audience in the cities. As many as a third of his supporters will be voting for the first time this election, according to Agam Labs.“I used to think he was a bit crazy, but then I actually looked at what he was saying, and it all made sense,” said Gavriel Marmon, an 18-year-old student and first-time voter from Beit Shemesh near Jerusalem.Kedmi, whose sister survived the Hamas-led attack on the Nova music festival, told Reuters: “It's almost like President Trump's ‘peace through strength’. But peace through Jewish strength.”Jewish Power is now forecast to win eight or more seats standing on its own, putting it on par with the Democrats.James Reynolds27 October 2026 10:00Netanyahu urges supporters to go out and vote due to 'higher-than-usual turnouts in the left's strongholds'Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday urged his supporters to go out and vote due to ‘higher-than-usual’ turnouts in what he called ‘the left’s strongholds’.“Right or Palestine, for real. Right-wing voters, this is an emergency hour >> Go out and vote right now!” he wrote on social media some five hours after polls opened in Israel.By 10am local time, reported voter turnout was just shy of 17 per cent, the highest since 1981.30 per cent of IDF soldiers had already turned out to vote by that time, ahead of the 25.7 per cent recorded in 2022. The IDF began voting in the national election a week ago, with polling stations deployed at military bases across the country and beyond Israel’s borders.Israeli border policemen cast their ballots at a polling station in the occupied West Bank city of Hebron on October 27 (AFP/Getty)James Reynolds27 October 2026 09:59The full story: October 7 terror attacks loom large over Israel electionsPrime minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces one of the toughest tests of his tumultuous political career to date as Israel prepares to vote in the first national elections since the 7 October terror attacks.With around four million voters expected to cast their ballots on Tuesday, public reckoning over the 2023 Nova massacre remains front and centre. Recent polling by the Israel Democracy Institute found 68 per cent of Jewish Israelis consider October 7 a central factor in deciding which party to vote for.Netanyahu has spent the better part of three decades branding himself Israel’s “Mr Security” but questions remain over his handling of the worst civilian attack in Israel’s history.Read the full story:James Reynolds27 October 2026 08:40Israeli president Herzog casts vote in electionIsraeli president Isaac Herzog and his wife Michal cast their votes for the Knesset in the neighbourhood of Rehavia.“A true holiday for democracy—no one can be allowed to spoil or undermine it,” he told reporters.“We are all equal today—this is our day to go and make an impact and vote.”James Reynolds27 October 2026 08:05Good morning and welcome to our coverage of the Israeli electionsGood morning and thank you for joining us in our coverage of the Israeli legislative elections.Today will be a test of Benjamin Netanyahu’s far-right government after three years of conflict, and as Israeli society continues to grapple with the aftermath of the country’s biggest security failure in generations, the October 7 attacks.Israeli politics have moved to the right since then but any challenger will still struggle to form a stable coalition government, and Netanyahu is a proven survivalist. The main challenge is coming from former IDF chief Gadi Eisenkot.Polls opened today at 7am local time, 5am in the UK, and will run until 10pm local time. Exit polls will then give the first indications of the outcome, but it could still take days or weeks for a final result to become clear.James Reynolds27 October 2026 08:00Israel committed war crimes in occupied Palestinian territory, says UNIsrael has committed war crimes and crimes against humanities in Gaza and the West Bank, the UN said in a report published on the eve of the first Israeli elections since the October 7 terror attacks.The UN commission of inquiry claimed Israel had committed the crimes against humanity of extermination, persecution, torture, rape and other forms of sexual violence in the Occupied Palestinian Territory.The report further accused Israel of “intentionally targeting Palestinian civilians” and continuing to commit “genocidal acts” even since the so-called ceasefire agreement in Gaza, with “the intent to destroy the Palestinian people, in whole or in part”.Read the full story:James Reynolds27 October 2026 07:44What happens after the results are published? After the final tally is in – the formal and final results must be published one week after the election, on 4 November – president Isaac Herzog will consult party leaders on whom they want as prime minister and then tap the candidate he believes has ‌the best chance of forming a government.That nominee has up to 42 days to form a government. No single party in Israel has ‌ever won an outright majority, so governments ⁠are formed by a coalition of parties, and negotiations on forming ⁠a government often take weeks. Every Knesset seat counts and small parties can have a big impact ‌by becoming kingmakers.If the nominee ​fails, others can get a chance ‌to try. If no government emerges, another ​election is called, with the present cabinet staying on as a caretaker government.Adam Withnall27 October 2026 07:00Tensions high as voting gets underwayAlready, emotions were running high for some as polls opened this morning. In Kiryat Shmona, a Netanyahu stronghold near the border with Lebanon, one man kicked and tore down a poster of his main rival Gadi Eisenkot, the AP reported.For some Israelis, this election presents the first chance for the country to change course after Netanyahu's latest, and especially turbulent, four-year term.Voters wait in a queue to cast their ballots at a polling station in Jerusalem (AFP/Getty)Netanyahu's supporters see him as a steady hand and a consummate statesman who they believe has triumphantly guided Israel through multiple wars. His detractors see him as a polarising leader who, beset by an ongoing corruption trial, dragged on the war in Gaza and its hostage crisis for political reasons. They say he is undermining Israel's independent judiciary and weakening its democratic underpinnings. Eisenkot is viewed by supporters as a capable leader with sterling security credentials who, along with his likely governing partners, could act as a bulwark against creeping illiberalism. As someone personally touched by the conflict – his son and two nephews were killed in Gaza – his backers believe that he feels deeply the pain that still courses through Israel three years after the attacks.Parties that would likely throw their support behind Eisenkot have vowed to improve Israel's international standing and work to conscript ultra-Orthodox men while bolstering the independence of the judiciary.Adam Withnall27 October 2026 06:00Polls open in IsraelIt's 7am in Israel, meaning voting has now begun in the country's first parliamentary election since the Hamas attack on 7 October 2023 that shook the country and plunged the Middle East into turmoil. Prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu's hold on power is at stake, with centrist rivals promising to usher in a new era.Voting runs until 10pm, Israeli TV channels will air exit polls giving the first indications of the outcome.But it could take days or even weeks for the final result of the election to become clear if no party or group has an outright majority.The final tally is expected by 30 October and official election results are formally published a week after the election, on 4 November.Adam Withnall27 October 2026 05:00Recap: Netanyahu faces fight for survival as Israel votesIsraeli prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu faces a fight for his political survival in today's election, with voters weighing his leadership after the 2023 Hamas-led attacks, wars in Gaza and with Iran, and Israel's deepening international isolation.Yet Netanyahu, Israel's longest-serving leader with 19 years in office, remains a formidable survivor, with nationalist politics increasingly entrenched and Israel's fragmented system potentially leaving him best placed to form a government. Opinion polls show a close race between Netanyahu's Likud party and its right-wing allies and a rival alliance led by Gadi Eisenkot, a former military chief of staff and security hawk with backers on the right and in the centre.Netanyahu is campaigning on his wartime leadership and his alliance with US president Donald Trump, who has endorsed him and joined Israel in waging war on Iran. He may again depend on far-right leaders Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich to form a government. Both have faced sanctions from some Western countries that accuse them of inciting violence against Palestinians, while Ben-Gvir's Jewish Power party has gained support in opinion polls. Neither Netanyahu nor Eisenkot has a clear path to power. If neither can ​form a governing ⁠coalition in the 120-seat parliament, Netanyahu could stay on as ‌caretaker until another election is held next year.Polls open from 7am to 10pm.Adam Withnall27 October 2026 04:00