Is Xi Jinping about to make China’s biggest ever mistake? Why invasion of ‘unsinkable fortress’ of Taiwan would fail

A CHINESE invasion of Taiwan would be an “existential gamble” and could go down in history as Beijing’s biggest ever mistake. From Taiwan’s resolute military to obvious attack signs, Xi Jinping would face huge challenges if he launched a full-scale assault on the “unsinkable fortress”, experts say. Xi Jinping invading Taiwan would be an ‘existential gamble’ and could go down in history as Beijing’s biggest ever mistake, an expert has warned Credit: Alamy Taiwan have spent years preparing for a Chinese invasion through war drills such as the Wan-An Air Raid Drill in 2024 which replicated air attacks by Beijing Credit: Getty A Taiwanese military personnel stands guard during a helicopter landing-and-attack FPV drone demonstration inside a military campus in Taipei Credit: EPA Taiwanese naval marines aboard M109 Special Operations Assault Boat maneuver during a drill earlier this month Credit: EPA Xi has been accused of being too scared of failure to attempt an invasion – as his reign over Beijing would almost certainly be over should he fail. Charlie Parton OBE, a former Brit diplomat who spent years working in China, told The Sun: “It would be an existential gamble on Taiwan. If Xi fails, then he risks being swept away by the reaction from the mainland. Sign up for The Sun newsletter Thank you! “The economy is likely to collapse and people will be angry by losing their children in war. “This great economic dislocation would lead to unemployment and Xi’s reputation for good governance would be in tatters. “So it would be one enormous risk and I would be very surprised if he were to take it without being close to 100 per cent sure he would win in Taiwan.” Charlie, an associate fellow at RUSI, says the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) would face a difficult task to pull off a successful invasion of Taiwan. In order to launch a high-risk amphibious assault, China would have to sail through 100 miles of rough sea to reach Taiwan’s well-defended islands. Should they navigate the choppy conditions safely then China would reach land and enter right into the heart of the battle. Most read in The Sun Taiwanese soldiers set up barricades during a drill simulating a response to curb invading forces from advancing Credit: Getty A Taiwanese soldier opens fire onboard a CM-34 armored vehicle, during a drill Credit: Getty There are only a handful of locations where the Chinese could feasibly land and they would quickly be met by enemy fire. Charlie said: “You’ve only got about 13 beaches where you could land on and of course you’d send in airborne troops but they’re at great risk of being shot out of the sky, particularly as drone technology increases. “So if the Taiwanese have prepared properly it would be extremely difficult to invade and the chances are that you wouldn’t succeed.” Another key reason why Xi’s hopes of reunification could fail at the first hurdle would be simply due to how obvious an invasion appears to be. A live-fire exercise featuring US Made M1A2T tanks, in Hsinchu County, Taiwan Credit: Getty Armed military vehicles patrol outside the Songshan Airport in Taipei in war drills designed to replicate the response if China encircled Taiwan Credit: AFP For years now, Beijing has been plotting an attack on Taiwan by performing drills around the island and building up its military power close to Taipei. This show of force may seem imposing, but it also means Taiwan is on high alert for an attack and always keeping a close eye on enemy activity. Charlie says when looking back at history, an invasion of Taiwan would be viewed as near to the D-Day landings in World War Two for complexity. The assault remains the largest seaborne invasion ever, but Charlie says the move across the Taiwan Strait is far longer than the allies travelled across the Channel up to Normandy. Xi would have to muster vast numbers of troops, materials and air support for an invasion which would be a “pretty clear warning”, Charlie said. “This would give time for the Americans and others to reinforce and make it even more difficult for China. “So I’m very doubtful that there would actually be an invasion.” China would also face serious difficulties if they attempted to deploy a blockade around Taiwan as it would essentially cut off much of the Taiwan Strait. Xi would only launch an invasion if he is certain the US wouldn’t come to the aid of Taiwan, an expert said Credit: Getty Military equipment of China’s ground forces take part in long-range live-fire drills targeting waters south of Taiwan Credit: Reuters A photo released by the PLA showing the regions where the Chinese military performed war drills during joint exercises conducted around Taiwan Credit: Shutterstock Editorial A satellite image showing Chinese barges connected via bridges which could be used to land heavy equipment and thousands of personnel in a possible invasion of Taiwan Credit: AFP This key trade route makes up a huge proportion of trade in Asia with global ships passing through each day. The strait also links the Far East to markets in Africa, Europe and the Middle East. If Beijing blocks off these trade routes then it would severely hamper the flow of money going into the region – including for China. Charlie said: “There would be an economic meltdown globally in Taiwan. And of course, the mainland is well connected to China so there would be a massive downturn there as well. “And then you get into a scenario of mass unemployment in China. “This would become an existential threat to the PLA due to massive unemployment and massive instability aimed at the party.” Even if they were able to conquer Taiwan, it then becomes very difficult to hold onto it as there’d be a lot of guerrilla warfare from the well-trained Taipei soldiers. Charlie believes Xi could think: “If we’re going to go through months, years of guerrilla resistance then this is not going to look good with my people.” Why does China want to invade Taiwan? TAIWAN insists it is an independent nation after splitting from mainland China amid civil war in 1949. But China claims Taiwan remains a part of its territory with which it must eventually be reunified – and has not ruled out the use of force to take the island and place it under Beijing’s control. The island, which is roughly 100 miles from the coast of south-east China, sees itself as distinct from the Chinese mainland, with its own constitution and democratically-elected leaders. Taiwan sits in the so-called “first island chain”, which includes a list of US-friendly territories that are crucial to Washington’s foreign policy in the region. This also puts it in an ideal situation to slow a Chinese attack on the West. And with tensions between the two nations high, Taiwan is likely to aid China’s enemy if it means keeping its independence. Taiwan’s economy is another factor in China’s desperation to reclaim the land. If China takes the island, it could be freer to project power in the western Pacific and rival the US, thanks to much of the world’s electronics being made in Taiwan. This would allow Beijing to have control over an industry that drives the global economy. China insists that its intentions are peaceful, but President Xi Jinping has also used threats towards the small island nation. The Asia expert added that Xi’s insatiable thirst for power could also stop him from invading Taiwan. Xi removed the law abolishing the term limit for a Chinese president in 2018 and has now served 13 years and counting as leader of Beijing. This has strengthened his position in power and left him virtually untouchable. “The one thing that Xi is not going to do is take a risk over falling from power because that’s really dangerous,” Charlie warned. “It’s not like a Westminster election where you might get back again in five years. This is the system being swept away. “So I think it’s much more likely that they will continue to put other forms of pressure on Taiwan and its people to try and convince them that unification is irresistible and inevitable.” Charlie remains adamant that a man as calculated as Xi would only invade once all his fears of failure and squashed. He even believes the Chinese will feel as if they have to meet certain guaranteed conditions before even thinking of planning an attack. “First of all, Xi would have to believe the People’s Liberation Army has overwhelming military power and effectiveness so it can win in a very short time and not get bogged down in a war,” he said. “I think another condition would be that Xi believes the US has no real time to come to Taiwan’s aid, even if it wants to.” Xi would also have to expect to face serious sanctions should he attack – especially from the US if they don’t get involved militarily. Charlie says despite China’s powerful economy, they will still need to build up sufficient leverage over the West in terms of resources, supplies and technology. “If the Chinese economy is not sufficiently self-reliant, self-contained to weather that storm then there would be an inevitable plummet in its economic performance. “Until those conditions are met, it’s fair to conclude that forceful ways of getting hold of Taiwan are on the back burner.” Comment now