Is Trump doomed? What bettors are saying ahead of midterms

National PoliticsPresident Donald Trump arrives to speak during a campaign rally at Rock Hill Sports and Event Center, Thursday, Oct. 29, 2026, in Rock Hill, S.C. (AP Photo/Alex Brandon)AP Photo/Alex BrandonWith the midterm elections just four days away, traders are overwhelmingly banking on one political party.For months, most national polls have shown Republicans trailing Democrats when likely voters are asked who they would choose on a generic congressional ballot.As of Friday morning, bettors on the prediction market platforms Kalshi and Polymarket are in line with that outcome — giving the Democratic Party the chance to flip the House and Senate blue as the GOP looks to hold onto its majorities in both.On Kalshi, Democrats have a 91% chance to control the House, with predictions they will end up with 235 safe seats compared to 189 among Republicans.Democrats also have 69% odds to win the Senate, which many political experts have said appears to be more uncertain heading into Election Day.Speculators on Kalshi believe that Democrats will flip at least five seats, giving them 52 total, while Republicans will end up with 46, losing seven seats from the current makeup. For the prediction platform’s “American Power Index,” its version of the S&P 500 for politics, the Democratic Party leads by 6.4 percentage points.According to Kalshi, the most actively traded races over the 24 hours through Thursday afternoon were the U.S. Senate race in Texas ($1.2 million), the California governor’s race ($628,000) and the Los Angeles mayoral race ($592,000).Traders on Polymarket similarly think Democrats will win the House, giving them an even higher 93% odds. Republicans, meanwhile, have just an 8% likelihood. On prospects for the Senate, Democrats have a 68% chance of winning, while Republicans stand at 32%, according to the market.There is a 68% likelihood that Democrats will sweep, as opposed to only 8% for the GOP, per Polymarket.Though polling and prediction markets do not necessarily go hand-in-hand, Trump and several GOP lawmakers have hinted that they aren’t looking too much into the numbers, suggesting that midterm surveys are inaccurate and a deliberate attempt to discourage Republican voters from casting their ballots.Since the beginning of October, Trump has headlined 25 rallies so far across the country, traveling to states that have typically served as GOP strongholds. He has repeatedly encouraged his base to “pretend” he is on the ballot.Rachel Cohen covers national politics as a reporter for Advance Local, focusing on President Donald Trump's second term and Congress. She previously worked as a trending political reporter for NJ.com. Her work...