Iran’s Civic Movement Regains Momentum, but the Regime’s Repression Apparatus Endures

Amid the Islamic Republic’s neither-war-nor-peace standoff with the United States and Israel, scattered demonstrations against the regime are gradually increasing — from roughly 30 in May to 90 in July to 130 in September. But getting people out on the street has not been enough to spark systemic change in Iran, as many had hoped. In January, the regime showed a bloody resolve, killing as many as 36,500 of its own citizens to quash protests that had taken over the streets nationwide. It has become apparent that no revolution from within can succeed without the aid of external efforts to weaken the regime’s apparatus of repression. The U.S.-Israeli bombing campaign that began on February 28 advanced the cause, but the April ceasefire cut the effort short. An investigation carried out by the Foundation for Defense of Democracies examined English, Persian, and Hebrew sources, including citizen reports, Iranian state media, and U.S. and Israeli military announcements. Using mapping software to verify locations, the report identified only 210 strikes against the regime’s internal security forces out of approximately 13,000 targets struck by the United States and 10,800 attacks conducted by Israel during the first stage of the war. Among the 210 associated with internal security forces were facilities belonging to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) and its Basij paramilitary, Iran’s police, the Ministry of Intelligence, and propaganda centers. U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard identified Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities and navy as Washington’s primary targets, consistent with U.S. Central Command’s (CENTCOM’s) April 6 statement that included a range of military targets without mentioning internal security bases. U.S. strikes consequently concentrated in Iran’s central provinces and along its southern coastline, while Israeli operations focused on the more urbanized western and northern regions, with nearly half of all Israeli strikes hitting Tehran alone. Unlike CENTCOM, the IDF repeatedly identified the regime’s repression apparatus among its targets. Nearly half of recorded strikes against the repression apparatus took place in Tehran and its vicinity. Most of the others targeted western and northwestern provinces, possibly because they are easier for Israeli jets to reach and have a history of protests and insurgencies. Sites farther from Israel saw fewer strikes. Mashhad, a northeastern city of 3.5 million that witnessed some of January’s largest protests, saw only one recorded strike against the local repression apparatus. The IDF estimated that its strikes eliminated between 4,000 and 5,000 regime personnel, most of whom reportedly belonged to the regime’s internal security forces. It was an unprecedented blow, with the aim of spreading fear among all those who defend the regime. Yet even losses on that scale represent only a fraction of the personnel available to the regime. There are roughly 190,000 members of the IRGC, about half of them conscripts; 90,000 active Basij; and 200,000-300,000 police; alongside an estimated 450,000 Basij reservists, not all of whom are immediately deployable. Unlike during the 12-Day War in June 2025, when Israeli calls for protests contradicted evacuation warnings from Washington and Jerusalem, President Donald Trump this year instructed Iranians to remain sheltered, while Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu declared that the moment to take to the streets would soon arrive. An Israeli media campaign repeatedly publicized footage of strikes against Iran’s internal security forces, pairing it with the message that “we [Israel] will create the conditions for you to take your destiny into your own hands.” Many Iranians cheered the strikes and celebrated after news broke of the elimination of regime officials. Scenes of people applauding in the streets as explosions echoed in the background appeared on social media. Other footage showed individuals playing revolutionary anthems from their balconies and chanting anti-regime slogans. Ordinary Iranians even shared the locations of mobile security checkpoints on social media to help Israel strike the units with drones. Such hyperlocal targeting of repression patrols and personnel sheltering in tents after their bases were bombed fundamentally altered the calculus of the regime’s forces. It was the first time that these forces feared for their lives as much as the dissidents they persecuted. Reports soon emerged of repression units hiding under bridges, commanders abandoning their posts, personnel deserting, and separate security institutions refusing to come to one another’s aid. The regime’s growing desperation was evident by late March, when the Islamic Propagation Coordination Council urged “committed youth,” revolutionary forces, and volunteers to join its “Homeland Defenders” campaign for defense, following earlier IRGC recruitment notices seeking children as young as 12 for wartime support. The regime began to rebuild its repression apparatus following the U.S. and Israeli strikes. It is further militarizing its support base as a first line of defense against protesters. Authorities have spread recruitment billboards and sent mass texts nationwide, established public weapons-training booths and nightly firearms classes, and expanded dedicated training for women and children. They are calling the effort “Life Sacrifice.” More recent U.S. strikes against Iran, including those following Tehran’s violations of the June memorandum of understanding that brought about the tense and often-broken ceasefire, have largely targeted military assets along the Persian Gulf coast. But to truly maximize its leverage against the Islamic Republic in any renewed conflict, Washington must degrade the regime’s repression apparatus to empower the regime’s only existential threat, the Iranian people. Janatan Sayeh is a research analyst at the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), where he focuses on Iranian domestic affairs and the Islamic Republic’s regional malign influence. For more analysis from the author and FDD, please subscribe HERE. Follow Janatan on X @JanatanSayeh. Follow FDD on X @FDD and @FDD_Iran. FDD is a Washington, DC-based, nonpartisan research institute focusing on national security and foreign policy.