Iran and Ukraine clashes show regional wars are spiralling into ‘global conflict’

Devastating wars in Iran and Ukraine, which show little sign of coming to an end, are escalating and expanding across the world instead. Dozens of countries are already involved in the conflicts, and more are being drawn in. On Thursday, Poland reported a cruise missile of probable Russian origin had landed in farmland close to its border with Ukraine. On Wednesday, a US tanker in an Egyptian port went up in flames following Iranian threats against the site. Last weekend, the first known Ukrainian attack on Iran killed a sailor in the Caspian Sea. China may be taking a more active role in hostilities, with reports suggesting it has agreed to supply Iran with air defence missiles. Shorts Brett McGurk, one of the top US foreign policy officials under former US president Joe Biden, said the spread of fighting was a grave concern. “I don’t want to be alarmist but there are glimpses of world war dimension, global conflict dimension,” he told CNN on Thursday. Yossi Mekelberg, an international relations scholar at Chatham House, said world leaders are losing control. “Countries went to war assuming they were bilateral or trilateral,” he told The i Paper. “They end up with something way bigger than they expected.” Foreign ministers in Kyiv and Tehran called for calm after the Ukrainian attack on Iran, but the strike highlighted the risks of sudden, dramatic escalation. Iran had reportedly prepared to launch ballistic missiles against Ukrainian infrastructure in response, before diplomacy intervened. Kyiv officials suggested the attack could be part of a wider campaign. Ukrainian MP Oleksii Goncharenko told The i Paper that Iran is a “participant in this war”, citing Tehran’s supply of drones to Russia, and said further strikes against it were “very possible”. Iranian military ships in the Caspian Sea (Photo: Iranian Army/Reuters) Caught in the crossfire Countries risk being caught in the crossfire as the wars expand. Poland, Romania, Moldova and Baltic states have increasingly found their territories in the flight paths of drones and missiles from the war in Ukraine, with the origins and intentions rarely clear. The incidents risk opening new fronts. “The threat is spreading,” said Mekelberg. “Look at Moldova and Romania, with drones flying all over their countries. Is it a black flag [enemy attack]? Is it a mistake? A rogue element trying to test the water? “The margins are getting smaller for mistakes…and if something feels threatening, these countries might make a move. And then there is a counter move.” Cases of Ukrainian drones crashing in Nato territory have raised suspicions in Russia that the alliance is allowing Kyiv to use its airspace for attacks – fiercely denied by those countries and Ukraine – and fueled calls for military action against the Baltic states such as shooting down drones inside their borders. A shootout between Ukraine and Iran could draw more nations into the fray. Babak Taghvaee, a journalist specialising in the Iranian military, notes that drone or missile attacks between the countries would require overflying and violating the airspace of countries such as Georgia, Armenia, Azerbaijan or Turkey, widening the scope of the conflict. “With the exception of Georgia, which has no fighter interceptors in its air force, all of these countries operate fighter aircraft capable of intercepting such drones or cruise missiles if they enter their airspace,” he said. “Turkey, in particular, would almost certainly shoot them down. Such incidents would also create diplomatic tensions with those countries.” Iran also has the option of striking at Ukrainian and US allies in Europe by aiding Russia’s campaign of sabotage attacks. Tehran is believed to have an extensive network of agents in the UK. The regime has also threatened to attack the RAF Fairford base used by US planes to attack Iran. Police at the scene of a drone crash in Estonia (Photo: Anni Onneleid/Reuters) Trans-continental conflict Many analysts believe the wars in Europe and Asia have already expanded into a trans-continental conflict. Ukraine may be playing a growing role in the Middle East. A senior Iraqi official this week accused Kyiv of carrying out covert bomb attacks on its territory, which it denied. But Ukrainian special forces have been revealed to be operating in the Middle East and North African countries including Libya, Syria and Sudan against Russian or Russian-backed forces. Colonel Markus Reisner, an officer and military analyst at Austria’s Theresian Military Academy, believes the conflicts merged weeks or months ago. “Just look at the hit and damaged US bases,” he said, referring to US assets in the Middle East that Iran has reportedly bombed with Russian intelligence assistance. Iran has launched attacks at 14 countries during hostilities with the US and Israel, including the Gulf states, but also Turkey and Azerbaijan. Baku vowed to retaliate after drones hit one of its airports in March, but it is not known to have done so. Mekelberg points to Kyiv’s growing Middle East footprint through arms sales to Gulf regimes. “Iran is involved in many ways in the war with Ukraine and Ukraine has become involved in the war in the Gulf, whether in supplying weapons or intelligence sharing,” he said. “Unless there is change in the bigger picture, this will continue.” Both wars have expanded beyond the borders of the immediate opponents. Iran’s Houthi allies in Yemen are exchanging strikes with US-allied Saudi Arabia, with another major international sea trade route under threat. Riyadh this week joined the US in bombing Iran-allied militias in Iraq. The drone attack on a US gas tanker in Egypt’s Damietta port on Wednesday followed Iranian threats against the site and warnings that Washington would not be allowed to dictate the terms of a conflict now in its sixth month. The US responded with a resumption of air strikes on Iran. Ukraine has an incentive to target a US enemy, Iran, at a time when it is heavily dependent on US military support – most crucially air defence missiles. Mark Cancian, a retired Army Colonel now at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, suggested the Caspian Sea strike would demonstrate Kyiv’s value as an ally and earn “credibility with the White House”. A satellite view shows the US Ali Al Salem Base in Kuwait after Iranian strikes (Photo: Planet Labs PBC/Reuters) Pacific expansion? Another Russian ally, North Korea, is already playing a major role in the Ukraine war, having supplied Putin with thousands of soldiers and millions of rounds of artillery ammunition. Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky recently warned that Pyongyang is preparing to send a further 30,000 troops. The implications of this alliance are sparking alarm across the Pacific. Taehwa Hong, a specialist on South Korean politics at the Foreign Policy Research Institute, said Seoul is gravely worried – although it has declined to confirm Zelensky’s claim. “A prime concern for South Korea is that Russia is transferring military high-tech and data to the North Koreans,” he said. Options to respond include assistance to Ukraine to allow it to inflict damage on North Korea. But no clear direction has yet been established, said Hong. Seoul is said to be in talks with Nato members over joining an initiative to acquire US weaponry for Ukraine. Among the greatest concerns for the US and its allies is that China takes a more active role in one or both of the wars. So far, Beijing has maintained an official stance of neutrality on Ukraine – while supplying many of the components that have allowed Russia to evade sanctions and keep its war machine running. But Beijing has agreed to sell hundreds of shoulder-fired air defence missile launchers to Iran, Reuters reported on Wednesday, citing sources familiar with the deal. The deal could see the weapons arrive in Tehran via Pakistan in weeks, the report claimed. China and Pakistan both denied the agreement. Trump has previously suggested that China may be sending unspecified supplies to Iran, and warned Chinese President Xi Jinping against giving weapons to Tehran. “It would be very bad for them – Certainly not in their best interests,” the US President said last week. But as the wars continue to spread and escalate, they appear to be out of any leader’s control.