India to receive below-normal rainfall in August, moderate El Nino to persist

The forecast comes after India received near-normal rainfall in July, largely due to multiple low-pressure systems and monsoon depressions that offset the suppressing influence of El Niño.A man cycles through a waterlogged road amid heavy rain, in the Nizamuddin area, New Delhi. (Photo: IMD)After a surprisingly strong revival in July, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast below-normal rainfall across the country in August, warning that the southwest monsoon could weaken as a moderate El Nino persists over the Pacific Ocean.Releasing its latest monthly and seasonal outlook on Friday, the IMD said the average rainfall over India during August 2026 is most likely to remain below 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA). The normal rainfall for August, based on the 1971-2020 climatology, is 254.9 mm.The forecast comes after India received near-normal rainfall in July, largely due to multiple low-pressure systems and monsoon depressions that offset the suppressing influence of El Nino. According to the IMD, below-normal rainfall is expected over most parts of the country during August, although northwest India, northeast India, east-central India and parts of the eastern peninsular region are likely to receive normal to above-normal rainfall.The weather agency also projected that the second half of the monsoon season (August and September combined) is likely to remain below normal, with rainfall expected to stay below 94% of the long-period average. The normal rainfall during the second half of the season is 422.8 mm. Despite the subdued national outlook, some regions are expected to fare better. IMD said parts of Peninsular India, Central India, northern northwest India, and East and Northeast India have a higher probability of receiving normal to above-normal rainfall during the remainder of the season.The rainfall outlook is closely linked to evolving ocean conditions. IMD said the ongoing El Nino is expected to remain at moderate intensity through August before strengthening further during September, with most global climate models indicating that the warm Pacific event will persist into early 2027.However, there is also a potential positive signal from the Indian Ocean. Several international climate models suggest a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) could develop by September, a phenomenon that typically enhances monsoon rainfall over India and can partially offset the adverse effects of El Nino.At the same time, IMD's own Monsoon Mission Coupled Forecasting System (MMCFS) continues to indicate neutral IOD conditions during much of the remaining southwest monsoon season, reflecting uncertainty over the exact evolution of the climate drivers.Meteorologists said August and September will now be crucial in determining whether India can erase the remaining seasonal rainfall deficit.While July's unexpected recovery demonstrated the resilience of the monsoon despite El Nino, a strengthening Pacific warming during the final phase of the season could once again suppress rainfall, making the evolution of both El Nino and the Indian Ocean Dipole critical for agriculture, reservoirs and water security.- EndsPublished By: Sonali VermaPublished On: Jul 31, 2026 17:39 IST