Increased ICE enforcement in 2025 hurt local employment, analysis finds

By Megan Cerullo Reporter, MoneyWatch Megan Cerullo is a New York-based reporter for CBS MoneyWatch covering small business, workplace, health care, consumer spending and personal finance topics. She regularly appears on CBS News 24/7 to discuss her reporting. Read Full Bio September 18, 2026 / 2:59 PM EDT / CBS News Add CBS News on Google Employment fell last year in U.S. cities where Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrests surged the most, according to a recent study. In cities where ICE arrests increased fastest in 2025, employment fell 0.4% below its expected trajectory both immediately after those detentions and for up to one year after a metro area was targeted, researchers with the Brookings Institution said in the report. On average, each arrest in cities where ICE's presence significantly increased was associated with four lost jobs, the nonpartisan think tank said."We found that employment fell in the cities where ICE activity surged, and not just among immigrants, but there were broader effects, including for Americans," Marcela Escobari, the report's lead author and a former special assistant to the White House National Security Council during the Biden administration, told CBS News. White House spokeswoman Lauren Bis dismissed claims that ICE enforcement tactics led to reduced employment in cities where arrests spiked."The surge in illegal immigration under President Biden threatened the long-run fiscal health of the country, contributed to record high inflation and suppressed the wages of American workers," she said in a statement to CBS News. "There is no shortage of American minds and hands to grow our labor force, and President Trump's agenda to create jobs for American workers represents this Administration's commitment to capitalizing on that untapped potential while delivering on our mandate to enforce our immigration laws."Border security has been a top priority during the second Trump administration. Stronger immigration enforcement policies "protect American workers, reduce strain on local communities, and reinforce the nation's right to control its borders and determine who enters the United States," according to a White House statement. The Trump administration ramped up its immigration crackdown in 2025. In January, thousands of federal agents were deployed to Minneapolis-St. Paul to investigate alleged fraud, leading to mass protests and the fatal shootings of two U.S. citizens by federal officers. In July, ICE detentions set a monthly record high for Mr. Trump's second term, with the agency taking into custody more than 46,000 individuals facing deportation because of alleged immigration violations, like entering the U.S. illegally or overstaying their visas, CBS News has reported. Businesses disruptedIncreased ICE arrests in U.S. cities last year drove job losses in three ways, Escobari told CBS News. First, some workers stopped reporting for work because they feared encountering ICE."Fear drove workers to withdraw from the labor force even when they weren't arrested," she said. This led to labor disruptions for some businesses, leading them to reduce their operating hours, delay expansion, freeze hiring, or, in some cases, lay off staff or shut down, according to Brookings. "We spoke to people in the field who explicitly said, if their framing crew is led by immigrants and they stop working or get arrested, they can't hand off the project to their roofing crew, and the project stalls," Escobari said, referring to the impact of increased ICE enforcement in the construction sector. "The company still needs to pay its debts, and many close altogether. When they close, the project manager or equipment operator and other occupations that tend to be occupied by American workers also lose their jobs."Rising ICE arrests in cities in 2025 also reduced employment by sapping consumer demand and spending, hurting local businesses, according to the Brookings researchers."These [ICE] operations engender widespread fear, and when people stop going out, they stop spending, and that forces businesses to close," Escobari said. Other research has also found a negative impact of increased ICE enforcement on local economies. A 2026 study from the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania found that economic activity and consumer spending dropped last year in metro areas where ICE conducted raids. "Effects intensify near raid sites, do not dissipate over time and are remarkably general: Declines occur regardless of neighborhood demography, affect workplaces and consumer-facing stores across myriad industries, and trigger no substitution to online shopping," Exequiel Hernandez, an expert on global and corporate strategy, wrote. "The breadth of the local economic damage mirrors the breadth of the enforcement approach."Another 2026 analysis, by the UCLA Latino Policy and Politics Institute, found that customer visits to businesses in Los Angeles County fell by as much as 11% in the weeks following ICE enforcement operations in the region. Edited by Alain Sherter In: Employment U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement Trump Administration