In Michigan, AIPAC faces its biggest battle yet

Amid the genocide in Gaza and the war in Iran, the mainstream media consistently pushes the idea of a “rift” or “rupture” within the Democratic Party over Israel. In actuality, no such friction exists. Look at any poll over the last couple of years, and you’ll see that Democratic voters have a firm position on the U.S./Israel relationship: they’re against it. Let’s use Pew data from earlier this year as a reference point this time. According to that survey, 80% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents have an unfavorable view of Israel, up from 69% last year and 53% in 2022. “The ‘divide,’ such as it is, is increasingly not among Democrats or even liberals; it is between the supermajority of Democratic Party voters and party leadership. While party leaders such as House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and Senator Minority Leader Chuck Schumer, and big Democratic donors, are pro-Israel, actual Democratic voters have moved on from Israel with remarkable speed and consistency,” notes media critic Adam Johnson in a recent Intercept piece. This is the backdrop for next week’s Democratic Senate primary in Michigan, where centrist Rep. Haley Stevens will square off against Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, a progressive former health official. The American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) has spent $30 million boosting Stevens, the most that the Israel Lobby group has ever spent on a single race. AIPAC’s vast investment makes sense given the stakes. An El-Sayed victory would mean the House might get another Representative completely at odds with the organization’s agenda. “Right now, our tax dollars and American-made weapons are being used to perpetrate a genocide in Gaza, illegal settlements in the West Bank and Jerusalem, and the attempted annexation of Southern Lebanon,” declares his campaign website. “That must end. I support immediate and comprehensive enforcement of U.S. laws that condition the provision of military aid and sales. And I support an immediate arms embargo on Israel and reject the false differentiation between ‘offensive’ and ‘defensive’ weapons.” If El-Sayed prevails, it would also come in the wake of other Democratic primary wins for Israel critics in Pennsylvania, New York, and Colorado. The group’s ability (or inability) to protect Haley Stevens is also being viewed as a referendum on its current level of power, as the race has crystallized around the group’s heavy spending. An AP headline declares that, in Michigan, AIPAC faces “the biggest test of its influence yet.” Over four years ago, AIPAC launched its United Democracy Project (UDP) Super PAC. The group wanted to move beyond lobbying and start spending unlimited amounts of money in support of pro-Israel candidates and incumbents. That recalibration was driven by a growing sense of anxiety. For years, a vast majority of Democratic lawmakers had dutifully backed Israel, and it wasn’t that difficult to quash the occasional outburst of criticism. However, the election of House members like Rashida Tlaib and a growing sympathy for Palestinians among voters suggested that it was time for the Israel Lobby to get more aggressive. Since then, Israel has committed genocide, and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has helped persuade President Trump to attack Iran. Israel is more unpopular than ever before, and more and more people are aware of how toxic AIPAC is. “I’ve never seen one single issue external to candidates’ platform and campaign become so central,” Omid Memarian, an analyst from Michigan and the director of communications at Democracy for the Arab World Now, told Haaretz. “Even voters unfamiliar with El-Sayed came to see rejecting AIPAC as proof he was ‘clean.'” Israel’s awful reputation means that AIPAC has consistently had to mask its spending because it knows they know their cause is a losing issue among voters. Michigan is no exception. The group has bankrolled pro-Stevens ads highlighting her work on manufacturing, but they dare not mention their actual reason for supporting her. Earlier this month, 103 Democrats backed an amendment to eliminate the $3.3 billion in military assistance that the U.S. sends to Israel every year. The effort failed, but it symbolized a changing political reality. “Today’s vote reflects a seismic shift in US politics. What was once unquestioning bipartisan consensus to fund Israel’s atrocities against Palestinians is now breaking apart,” said Jewish Voice for Peace Action political director Beth Miller in a statement after the vote. That moment inevitably caused some fallout for AIPAC. The group immediately cut off contributions on its online portal for Democrats who had supported the legislation, but it’s hard to believe such a move will hurt those lawmakers. After voting for the amendment, Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY) said he would stop taking money from AIPAC and return any that he’s already received. “I expect groups like AIPAC will not support me in my future elections and frankly, I don’t want their support,” he tweeted. “Hardline stances that refuse to stand up to a corrupt and increasingly dangerous Netanyahu regime have no place in our politics.” Some stalwart supporters of Israel voted in favor of that amendment, while expressing their continued support for the country. “The United States must be a force for security and stability. The American people are rightly demanding an end to a perpetual cycle of war, and the Netanyahu government cannot maintain its current course,” said Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-CA). “Therefore, while this amendment is ill-conceived, I vote yes for the message that it sends.” Haley Stevens, who once claimed that Israel came to her in dreams, would not even go that far. She voted against the amendment because, despite a genocide, she still believes that Israel should continue receiving military support from the United States. That’s how she’s always voted in the House, and that’s how she will vote if she ends up in the Senate. If El-Sayed wins next Tuesday, it will be a major setback for AIPAC. Not just because they’ll be losing Stevens in Congress and potentially ending up with another lawmaker who champions the human rights of Palestinians, but because their entire political project will show deepening cracks. Michael ArriaMichael Arria is Mondoweiss’ U.S. correspondents. He is the author of Medium Blue: The Politics of MSNBC. Follow him on x at @michaelarria.