In France, experts doubt leftwing momentum could thwart Le Pen’s presidential lead

Left-wing victories in the U.S. and Brazil, alongside student-led protests across Europe, have raised hopes of reversing the far right’s momentum. But experts doubt France will follow suit in 2027.PARIS (CN) — Behind the counter of a tailor shop near Gare de Lyon on Saturday morning, Buran, who asked to be identified only by his first name, considered whether Democrats’ dominance in the U.S. midterms could influence France’s 2027 presidential election.“Of course it interests us; All of the movements that happen in the U.S. affect the whole world, especially Europe,” he said. “There were always movements to the left here … But all of the right is going to reunite — the left will never win.”Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally, dominates France’s presidential race. An Ifop poll for LCI released Tuesday puts her at 36%, well ahead of hard-left France Unbowed candidate Jean-Luc Mélenchon at roughly 18%, with moderate candidates trailing.Despite the far right’s global gains, recent movements suggest a possible shift. Sweden’s center-left bloc defeated its far-right coalition in September, Brazil’s Lula beat Bolsonaro in October, and Democrats dominated the U.S. midterms in November. Student-led movements have also mobilized across Europe, including France, Italy, Serbia and Albania.But experts doubt that momentum will be enough to prevent a Le Pen presidency.“Even if the left can hope for something from Trump’s defeat in the midterms, the fact remains that public opinion is still much more on the right today than on the left,” Luc Rouban, a senior research fellow at Sciences Po Paris, said. “It could strengthen the left a bit, but does it actually weaken Marine Le Pen? I’m not sure, because you know, there is a strong demand for authority in French society.”France faces a societal reckoning as protests by students, workers and yellow vests converge and gain momentum. Though largely peaceful, demonstrations turned violent Oct. 17 when opportunistic agitators looted stores and overwhelmed authorities, a development widely seen as strengthening the National Rally’s position.“People really did not appreciate the violence on Oct. 17,” Rouban said. “So [the population] still has a desire to get back a kind of power that is a bit closer to the people, but a right-wing power.”Protesters marching down the Boulevard Voltaire in Paris on Nov. 5, 2026. (Lily Radziemski/Courthouse News)The French left hailed the U.S. midterm results as a victory for democracy, while Le Pen remained silent. She has distanced herself from Trump, portraying the National Rally as a nationalist champion of the working class.“Since it’s bad news [for them], they’re playing the French nationalist card by saying that the midterm elections in the United States have absolutely nothing to do with French elections,” Gilbert Casasus, a prominent political scientist, said. “Which may perhaps be false, but their strategy is obviously to minimize the significance of the midterms on the French elections, whereas the left is in the exact opposite position — it should maximize the lessons from Trump’s defeat in the midterms.”But Casasus described how the moderate French left has “completely forgotten to do any ideological work over the past decade or so,” which has caused the bloc to lose considerable influence. This is why Mélenchon’s more “radical” left has taken over.“The French left finds itself facing an extremely difficult dilemma to resolve,” Casasus said. “It’s largely aligned with a radicalization of society, even though the party representing this radicalization is incapable of rallying a majority of the French people behind it.”Subscribe to our free newslettersOur weekly newsletter Closing Arguments offers the latest about ongoing trials, major litigation and rulings in courthouses around the U.S. and the world, while the monthly Under the Lights dishes the legal dirt from Hollywood, sports, Big Tech and the arts.Additional Reads