If Moscow Is Not Stopped in Ukraine, NATO Itself Could Be Next, Merz Warns

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz warned Thursday that any weakening of Germany’s commitment to Ukraine could trigger consequences across Europe, arguing that European unity has become essential both to Ukraine’s survival and the continent’s own security. “The security of Europe, our security, is at stake in Ukraine,” Merz said at a ceremony in Münster awarding NATO the International Award of the Peace of Westphalia.JOIN US ON TELEGRAMFollow our coverage of the war on the @Kyivpost_official. “If we fail to halt Moscow, the Russian war machine will sooner or later turn against us, against NATO itself.” Merz said Russia’s full-scale invasion had shown that Ukraine’s survival and Europe’s security could no longer be separated. Russia, he said, was violating the most fundamental principles of international law and the European order, while its missiles and drones continued to strike Ukrainian homes, bridges, power plants, schools, hospitals and other civilian infrastructure. Merz warned Europeans against assuming the threat would remain confined to Ukraine. He asked whether the Baltic states could eventually become a drone battlefield like Ukraine’s Donbas, or which European cities might one day face the ballistic missiles Russia currently launches against Kyiv and Kharkiv. “Three generations after 1945, war would return to our part of Europe,” he warned. ‘Unity and strength’ against Moscow Merz said NATO’s experience had shown that unity and military strength were prerequisites not only for deterrence but also for successful diplomacy with Moscow. Other Topics of Interest ‘A Deliberate Tactic’: Zelensky Condemns Russian Drone Strike on Kyiv School According to Ukrainian authorities, the drone’s 50 kg (110 lbs) warhead pierced the school’s floor but did not explode. “Unity and strength remain prerequisites for successful negotiations with Moscow,” he said. He stressed that maintaining US involvement remained vital. “This can only encourage us to keep the United States of America by our side in our policy regarding Ukraine.” Merz pointed to continued transatlantic coordination and argued that sustained pressure on Washington had helped preserve US involvement in European security and Ukraine policy. Europe, meanwhile, had undergone what Merz described as a security awakening. For the past two years, he said, European states have provided the largest share of assistance to Ukraine. “Europe is waking up to what is required in terms of security policy,” Merz said. “For Ukraine, this European awakening today is its salvation in an hour of great need.” “This struggle for unity is hard work. But it is crucial on the path towards peace in Ukraine and security in Europe.” He warned that the war must not be allowed to fracture Europe. “If Germany falters, Europe falters. If Europe falters, Ukraine falters,” Merz said. “If we stand firm, then Europe stands firm. And if Europe stands firm, then Ukraine also stands firm.” Merz takes aim at AfD and its Russia policy Merz also turned the focus inward, warning that Germany itself faced pressure to weaken support for Ukraine. “In Germany, too, we will not let ourselves be divided – not by hybrid attacks, not by hate speech in social media driven by Moscow’s bots, and not by the sound bites of the AfD and their Russian puppeteers,” he said. The Alternative for Germany has opposed extensive German military assistance to Ukraine and advocated restoring closer relations with Moscow and easing sanctions against Russia. The party has also made dramatic electoral gains in recent weeks. It won roughly 44% in Saxony-Anhalt in September and later finished first in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania, while recording its strongest-ever result in Berlin. Merz rejected arguments that Germany’s support for Ukraine was damaging Germans economically. “Our support for Ukraine is not an end in itself,” he said. “We are, first and foremost, providing this support in order to protect the freedom and security of the people in our country.” “Freedom and security are prerequisites for our prosperity.” He also pushed back against claims that NATO enlargement had effectively forced Russia into acting defensively. Merz said Moscow’s perceptions should be taken seriously but added that Europe must “speak out when perpetrators portray themselves as victims.” ‘Dictated peace’ would leave Europe less secure Merz stressed that Germany ultimately seeks stable and predictable relations with Russia. But he said those relations could not be restored while Moscow continues its war against Ukraine and hybrid attacks across Europe. Western military support for Kyiv, he argued, was therefore necessary to create the conditions for genuine negotiations rather than prolonging the war. “Our assistance for Ukraine is laying the groundwork to enable serious peace negotiations with Moscow to get under way in the first place,” Merz said. He warned that without continued Western backing, the war risked ending not in a negotiated settlement but in a peace “dictated” by Russia. That, he said, could destabilize the Ukrainian state, trigger large-scale migration toward Western Europe and reward Russia’s aggression. “Europe would become an insecure continent,” Merz said. Any settlement, he added, must preserve Ukrainian sovereignty, leave territorial decisions to Ukraine itself and provide Kyiv with credible security guarantees and the freedom to continue its European path. Ukraine faces its hardest winter Merz warned that Ukraine was approaching what could be its most difficult winter since Russia launched its full-scale invasion in February 2022. Residents of Ukrainian cities, he said, were preparing for further ballistic missile attacks and Russian strikes against heating and electricity infrastructure, schools, apartment buildings and churches. “Ukraine has to survive this winter,” Merz said. “I am convinced: Ukraine will survive it.” Germany would continue helping, he said, including through repairs to destroyed energy facilities and development of new air-defense systems designed to intercept jet-powered drones. Those German systems are expected to enter mass production, according to the chancellor. Merz said Germany was also drawing directly on battlefield lessons from Ukraine in drone defense, military command systems and defense-industrial innovation. He argued that such cooperation was strengthening Germany’s own security as well. NATO chief: ‘Support Ukraine’ NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte, accepting the Westphalian Peace Prize on behalf of the alliance, echoed Merz’s call to continue backing Kyiv. “Keep calm, carry on, and support Ukraine,” Rutte said. “Putin wants to intimidate and divide us. But he will fail.” Rutte said Russia’s hybrid campaign across Europe – including cyberattacks, sabotage, arson, drone incidents and airspace violations – was aimed in part at distracting NATO countries from Ukraine and weakening their willingness to support Kyiv. “Our response to his hostile actions is to support Ukraine even more,” he said. Rutte also urged NATO members to accelerate defense investment and weapons production, warning that Russia’s military-industrial base would not weaken quickly. “Increased defence production is not about warmongering,” he said. “It’s about making sure we keep our people safe and Ukrainians strong in their fight for freedom.” The NATO chief said Ukraine’s fight had become inseparable from the alliance’s own security. “Ukraine’s fight is our fight, their security is our security, and our support is unwavering,” Rutte said. For Merz, the coming months would test whether Germany and Europe could sustain that unity. “The coming months will be critical for the fate of Ukraine and for security in Europe,” he said. “If we waver or falter, then this could have fateful consequences. But if we stand firm, then, together, we can achieve peace for Ukraine and freedom in security for all of Europe.”