Iceland referendum could put EU membership talks back on the table

Icelanders will vote on Saturday on whether to resume negotiations to join the European Union, with the result expected to be finely balanced after a campaign dominated by questions of sovereignty, fishing and the country’s place in an increasingly uncertain geopolitical landscape. Issued on: 29/08/2026 - 08:50 4 min Reading time Saturday's ballot is not a direct vote on EU membership – instead, the Icelandic electorate is being asked whether the government should restart accession negotiations with Brussels, which were suspended in 2013. If the "yes" side wins, talks would resume and any eventual membership agreement would then be put to Icelanders in a second referendum. A Maskina poll conducted between 21 and 25 August put support for resuming negotiations at 51.3 percent among decided voters, compared with 48.7 percent who are opposed. Both camps have been making a final push to win over those who are undecided. Iceland's government gives green light to resume commercial whaling Fishing fears Earlier this week, Haraldur Olafsson, who is chairman of an organisation campaigning against renewed talks, was distributing leaflets in the capital Reykjavik making the case for a "no" vote. For Olafsson, a professor of meteorology who spent several years living in France, the debate is above all about sovereignty – and he says nowhere is that issue more sensitive than in Iceland’s fishing industry. Seafood accounted for nearly 39 percent of Iceland’s goods exports in 2025, while control of the surrounding waters has long been central to the country’s prosperity and political identity. Iceland currently largely determines its own fishing quotas and management of marine resources. EU membership would bring it under the Common Fisheries Policy, by which access and quotas are governed by shared EU rules. “You never know what decision the European Union will take on fishing. The French, the Spanish, the Dutch – everyone wants to come to Iceland to fish. We’re worried there won’t be enough fish for everyone,” Olafsson told RFI. During the so-called Cod Wars of the 1950s, '60s and '70s, Iceland repeatedly clashed with the United Kingdom as it expanded its fishing zone and sought to keep foreign trawlers out. Fisheries were among the most sensitive issues during Iceland’s previous attempt to join the EU. The country applied in 2009 after the collapse of its banking system, but talks were suspended four years later after a more Eurosceptic government came to power and were formally ended in 2015. Olafsson believes that even if voters approve renewed negotiations, they may ultimately reject membership. “Many Icelanders do not want to prevent their government from holding talks with the European Union. But ultimately, I think Icelanders are not interested in becoming members,” he said. Several hundred people who agree with him gathered in central Reykjavik on Thursday for a rally, some wearing T-shirts bearing the message “No, thank you". Security has also taken on great importance in Iceland’s national debate. The country is a NATO member without a standing army, and occupies a strategically important position in the North Atlantic. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and United States President Donald Trump’s repeated threats to take control of neighbouring Greenland have sharpened questions about Iceland’s place in Europe. Trump also repeatedly referred to Greenland as “Iceland” while discussing his ambitions for the Danish autonomous territory earlier this year. The US State Department later reassured Icelandic officials that he had meant Greenland, but the episode added to unease over a rapidly shifting international order. The ‘Yes’ campaign headquarters In Reykjavik, where the campaign slogan sums up their strategy: ‘Yes, to see’. © Sophia Khatsenkova/RFI Icelandic pride could damage EU bid ‘Yes, to see’ At the "yes" campaign headquarters, around 20 volunteers have been working the phones in an effort to reach wavering voters. Their slogan “Yes, to see” sums up their argument: negotiate first, then decide whether membership is worth pursuing. “Why not see what opportunities might come our way before deciding to shut the door? For me, we need to secure the agreement, analyse it and then make a decision,” campaigner Greta Maria told RFI. Iceland is already deeply integrated into Europe. It belongs to the European Economic Area and the single market, and is part of the Schengen zone. But while it applies many EU-linked rules, it has no representative at the table when decisions are taken. Full membership would give Iceland a voice in institutions including the European Parliament and the Council of the European Union. For Maria, the issue is also economic. “We have a population of fewer than 400,000. We have a small currency, very high interest rates and high inflation. For me, it’s about whether the daily lives of Icelanders could be better than they are today,” she said. Inflation stood at 5.6 percent in August – around twice the EU average – while interest rates have hovered around 8 percent, as policymakers try to bring rising prices under control. Even if the "yes" vote prevails, EU Enlargement Commissioner Marta Kos has emphasised that negotiations could take one to two years. Any final agreement would still need the approval of all 27 EU member states – and then another referendum in Iceland. This article has been adapted from the original version in French by RFI's correspondent in Reykjavik, Sophia Khatsenkova.