I Really Hope Crypto Doesn’t Play a Big Part in the Midterms—or in Anything Else Ever Again, for That Matter

5 min readSee how they run. From Politico:Rep. Ashley Hinson (R-Iowa) on Monday expressed frustration over the ongoing war in Iran and its impact on Iowans’ pocketbooks, publicly distancing herself from President Donald Trump ahead of November’s rapidly approaching midterm elections. “Iowans are being squeezed and shouldn’t have to foot the bill at the pump or the checkout line for the war in Iran,” Hinson said in a post to social media on Monday. “We need to use every option at our disposal to provide some relief from high prices.”It’s the second time Hinson, the GOP candidate in Iowa’s critical Senate race and a loyal ally of Trump’s, has expressed concerns over the war. In June, Politico obtained audio of Hinson warning the war could become a “political liability” if it continued much longer. Hinson did not mention Trump by name in her Monday statement. Hinson called for suspending the gas tax, pausing diesel exports and creating a diesel relief program to help farmers and truckers “being crushed by the high costs,” among several other possible solutions. “These actions to lower costs are needed ASAP, and the war needs to be brought to a successful and immediate end,” she added.To the surprise of absolutely nobody, Republicans all over the country are running away from the president to various distances and at various speeds. Many of them are running while looking over their shoulders, but they're running nonetheless. Iowa is a decent index patient here. Again, from Politico:Republicans close to Iowa Rep. Ashley Hinson, granted anonymity to speak candidly, told Politico she would need to start distancing herself from Trump in subtle ways to win her critical Senate race. They’re worried that the president’s tariff agenda and the ongoing Iran war are undercutting her chances. ...Two other Iowa Republicans, Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks, voted to limit Trump’s use of war powers and end the war in Iran on Tuesday despite having repeatedly voted to green-light the war since March. Nunn said in a statement following the vote “Iowa has already paid a devastating price” for the Iran war, referring in part to two U.S. servicemembers from Iowa who were killed at the beginning of the conflict. Miller-Meeks said she “will not vote to keep our soldiers in an open-ended war, with Iowans paying too much at the pump.” None of them attended a campaign rally Vice President JD Vance held in western Iowa on Friday; Vance urged voters to back Hinson, who he called “an amazing public servant,” from the stage.Tom Tiffany, the GOP candidate for governor in Wisconsin, is another fugitive from his president's side.Wisconsin Republicans privately admit that Tiffany, like others in their party, is walking a tightrope.“Every campaign in the country right now has to balance being your own person versus how you appropriately align yourself with the president,” said a Wisconsin GOP strategist granted anonymity to speak candidly without jeopardizing their work for other campaigns. “Sometimes it’s lockstep with the president, and sometimes it’s not. And the art of this whole thing is figuring out where to break.”Life’s tough in the lawn-care business, gang.There is one wild card in this whole business. The money is starting to roll in. The president has a huge war chest that he just now has fully unleashed, but there are other centers of the money power that have a strong interest in maintaining the battered status quo. For example, Sherrod Brown's attempt to return to the Senate seems to be rolling right along. But the financial angels, dark though they are, have begun to circle the race. From The New York Times: The cryptocurrency industry, furious at Democrats for blocking the passage of a major business-friendly bill last week, is beginning to wage war on the party’s midterm candidates. The industry’s main super PAC, Fairshake, which is backed by some of the richest people in Silicon Valley, is starting to unspool a planned $30 million advertising campaign against former Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, a Democrat running again for the chamber, the group told The New York Times.The push is by far the crypto industry’s most aggressive move yet in the midterms, and it could have significant implications for the Ohio Senate race, one of this year’s top contests for control of Congress. Fairshake spent $41 million on advertising in 2024 to target Mr. Brown, a progressive critic of the industry who was then the top Democrat on the Senate Banking Committee. He lost, and many Republicans credit the crypto industry for helping them win. Fairshake has cast itself as a bipartisan super PAC, and it supported some Democrats in the 2024 elections. But with Republicans in control of Washington, the industry has enjoyed a light regulatory touch and warm relations with party leaders. President Trump has also pulled in more than $1.4 billion from his family’s crypto businesses in his first year back in office, raising a host of ethical concerns.The We-Invented-New-Money crowd is not alone. The Republicans have a whopping financial advantage for the stretch run. And while the president may be political poison, his money is not. From The Washington Post:Since the beginning of this month, MAGA Inc. and other super PACs linked to the president have invested more than $130 million in races across the country, according to records of reserved advertising. That rush has eased conservative anxiety in tight races and put on full display what many view as one of their biggest strengths heading into November: cash.The flood began Sept. 5 when the president’s super PAC, MAGA Inc., reported spending $10 million in Texas to support Republican Ken Paxton, the state attorney general locked in a competitive Senate race. On Saturday, Trump’s super PAC reported spending another $5 million on the race. The money for advertising arrives with less than 50 days until the midterm elections, and Republicans at risk of losing their narrow majorities in both chambers. For months, Democrats have had a head start on reaching voters, blanketing the airwaves to introduce their candidates and attack GOP opponents. Democratic candidates have consistently outraised their opponents, and polls have Democrats in position to retake the House and potentially the Senate.This late-arriving spending might be enough to blunt the looming electoral catastrophe facing the Republicans. But the president himself is still a 200-pound millstone. The most recent American Research Group poll staked his approval rating at 29 percent. This is probably an outlier, but it makes for substantial agita if you're a Republican hanging on by your fingernails.